April 7, 2019 7:00 pm
on April 4, 2019 8:28 am
Pavlyuchenkova EW 1-2 1/2
9.00 (min. 6.00)
WTA, Tennis, Singles
Winner, Each Way
Monterrey tournament is ongoing and I’m trying to make it as short as possible so as many as you guys will be able to back my outright/futures picks. The tournament is held in the city of Monterrey (540m altitude), Mexico, on hard courts and has featured a 32-player draw. The 2018 tournament winner was Spain’s Garbine Muguruza, who defeated Babos in the final.
Top remaining seeds in Monterrey are as follows: #5 Kerber (1), #19 Muguruza (2), #33 Pavlyuchenkova (3), #67 Azarenka (5), #58 Flipkens (6), #66 Mladenovic (7) and #71 Rybarikova (8). The only seed that lost so far is Riske- and she lost in the first round against Vickery.
Kerber/Muchova vs Flipkens
Pavlyuchenkova v Diyaz/Azarenka
Rybarikova vs Vickery
Mladenovic/Arn vs Gasparyan/Muguruza
I find the bottom half of the main-draw way easier and that’s where I will search my biggest value in the outright market. My tip for this half will be picked because of pure math and because of match-up advantages and in the end, will be a mix between huge odds and decent chances to get a win here.
The two players that have already reached the QFs are on my main radar and I cannot understand why Vickery is priced now 25/1 to win the tournament. She will face Rybarikova and is priced 1.92 now to win that match, and a worst case scenario (odds wise) is she will face Muguruza in the Semi-Final, where I think she will be priced around 3.50. Multiplying these two odds we get just a 6.72 for Vickery to reach the final and comparing it to the Each-Way price of 12/1 to reach the final is just insanity from the bookies.
Vickery loves playing at altitude and managed to reach the semi-final in 2018 here, where she lost in 3 sets to Babos. She defeated QF opponent Rybarikova in the road to 2018 SF, and I can say it was clear as hell, as she won 6-0 6-3. Both of these two players had a marathon match to win during the QFs but Vickery is younger with better stamina and played earlier, so had more time to recover. Rybarikova hasn’t won back-to-back hardcourt matches since Monterrey 2018 and had won just 4 matches out of the last 15 played before Monterrey 2019. She is in poor form, despite winning here two 3-setters (against Doi and Voegele). She complained about the bounce of the ball here, at altitude, after the Voegele win. I would have taken Vickery here to win money-line if I wouldn’t have backed her outright.
Vickery would face, as worst case scenario, Muguruza in the potential semi-final and that match looks also winnable, in my opinion. Vickery defeated 2-1 Muguruza in Indian Wells 2018 (a bigger tournament too). So the value would be clear on Vickery again if she manages to get to the SF. The other players on this part of the draw are: Arn (almost 40 years old), Mladenovic (very bad form with 4W-8L this year) and Gasparyan (she hasn’t played only 2 matches on altitude, in the first round here and in Madrid last year- needs to get used yet, to it against a good player).
The top half of the draw looks stacked with players like Kerber, Pavs and Azarenka. The fact is that I will take another outright bet for this part too and I will consider current form, past results on altitude and match-up advantages for the pick. Despite not being the same value as the bet on the bottom half, I like to have a bet on both halves. I love the feeling of having two players that I tipped outright facing in the final. You can’t blame me for that.
Pavlyuchenkova is my tip for the top half and the reasons are rather obvious. She performs incredibly at altitude having a record of 24W-2L in Monterrey, winning the title 4 times (2010, 2011, 2013 and 2017). She really enjoys playing here and the fast conditions and funny ball bounces are no concern for her. Her flat and attacking style is favored by the fast travel of the ball through this thin air and she can hit winners from both wings very easily in these conditions. As a bonus, we saw her play two matches already here and she won both very clearly (Blinkova 6-0 6-3, Jorovic 6-0 6-0).
She will face Diyas or Azarenka in the QF and I have no doubt she will crush either of them because her form here is unmatched, while those two have struggled now for many months to find any decent form.
A possible match that some would consider troubling would be against Kerber, but not me. She defeated Kerber twice in Monterrey before and the H2H is 6-7 down, which is considered as positive against a former #1 and multiple Slam-Champion. Kerber played 3 times in Monterrey and reached 2 finals, both lost to potential semi-final opponent and our top half pick, Pavlyuchenkova.
I feel like the value in Monterrey is huge on both sides and that’s why I will make two big bets for the outright market.
Sachia Vickery to win Each-Way 1-2 1/2 @ 25/1 (Total 10 units*) with bet365
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win Each-Way 1-2 1/2 @ 8/1 (Total 10 units*) with WilliamHill
*500 units betting bank, which makes 10 units 2% of the total bankroll