Open 13 (Marseille). Stefanos Tsitsipas v Hubert Hurkacz. Match Preview and Free Betting Tip #TipstersClub (by Ardeal)

Indoor tennis started and I have to say I love it! This is the best time of the season, along with the short grass court part. I love it because there is enough data to compile odds, enough data to see how each player has played in the past on this surface, but also there are a lot of courts covered by streamings and that is the best way to analyze a match.

Tsitsipas is the #12 in the world right now, reaching this ranking after this superb run to the Semis of Australian Open. The fact that he didn’t do anything after that is no surprise, as he stated several times that his physical condition isn’t that what he hoped for and he is really tired after the long AO campaign.

Stef played Sofia where he won 7-6 6-4 against Struff and then lost to Monfils 6-3 7-6. He then played Rotterdam where he lost to Dzumhur 6-4 1-6 7-5, as a 1.19 favorite to win the match. I saw all matches after the Australian swing and I have to say he is was not fully fit and not even close to fully committed to the matches played.

Most of the tennis-followers say that Tsitsi is the new Federer and is a breath of fresh air on the ATP tour. I might have to disagree with this as I don’t really rate him that much. It is hard to compare a kid to Federer, and comparing a kid that can barely break serve to that level of achievement is pure insanity.

Tsitsipas played 14 matches in 2019 and won 8 of them, 5 of them came in Australia. So, besides of the Australian run, he has won 3 other matches. He managed to lose to Norrie (Hopman Cup), Federer (Hopman Cup), Seppi (Sydney), Monfils (Sofia), and Dzumhur (Rotterdam). 4 of those mentioned losses came as him being a favorite. During those 14 matches played in this year, he managed to play 42 sets of tennis, and of those 42 sets of tennis, he played a stunning amount of tie-breaks (13 tie-breaks). That is 30,95% chance of playing a tie-break in a set. That is nearly an Ivo/Isner level of tie-breaks played.

In 2019, in his official ATP matches, he managed to hold serve 87% of times (which is really good), but break only 14% of all return games. That is really low for a player ranked #12. These numbers show us a clear story of Tsitsipas. He is over-achieving by winning a lot of close matches, and also tie-breaks in the end.

Stefanos will face in this match, top-ranked Polish player, Hubert Hurkacz. One thing you need to know about Hubert is that he is a great server and possesses a great power when serving. He is also playing a lot of tie-breaks in his matches, but he is still between ATP challenger level and rising to the ATP full-time. He played 11 matches in 2019 and win 7 of them, while during those 11 matches he played 27 sets of tennis. During those 27 sets, he played 11 tie-breaks (4 of them came against Karlovic tho).

Hubert loves playing indoors as he can use his services at full value. Indoors there isn’t any wind and the temperature is constant. Hubert started the Marseille campaign with a surprising win over Krajinovic, being a 2.84 underdog in that clash. This is the first time he plays Marseille, which is not surprising as he played in the past mostly in Challenger events. Hubert’s stats for his 2019 ATP matches are a bit misleading and cannot be considered fully as he played 4 sets against Karlovic. He has an 88% hold percentage (out of 49 service games played) and 4% break percentage (out of his 50 return games played).

Anyway, we can see a clear pattern here, and having two players that rely on their serves, while return this poorly we can clearly expect them to have a close encounter with a tie-break at least. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if HH will win a set, or the match in the end, considering the form Stef is currently. Even a close loss will make this bet a winner here.

The two players have played a match in the NextGen Finals last year, a match won by Tsitsipas 4-1 4-3 4-1, but that really doesn’t matter as they played with special rules there (no-deuce most important).


Hurkacz +3.5 Games @ 2.05 (10 units) with Pinnacle (via SportMarket)


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Delray Beach Open. Nick Kyrgios v John Millman. Match Preview and Free Betting Tip #TipstersClub (by Ardeal)

American outdoor hard court swing starts with Delray Beach Open and we do have a match to be excited about, on a betting way at least. But to that a bit later.

Delray Beach Open is a 250 ATP event that is held in Delray Beach, Florida since 1993. The current title holder is American Frances Tiafoe. In the past years, we did saw a lot of big servers prevail here and the only one that won this title twice in the past 10 years is Ernests Gulbis. The last 5 years this title has been won by Cilic, Karlovic, Querrey, Sock, and Tiafoe. We definitely can see a pattern here. The seeds list for 2019 tournament is rather disappointing with Del Potro (injury problems), Isner (out of form), Tiafoe, Johnson, Millman, Seppi, Fritz, and Mannarino. The 8th seed of Delray Beach is Mannarino, who is ranked #51 in the world and has a 0-6 record in 2019. Just imagine…

They use a Plexipave outdoor hard court that’s rather bouncy and from past experience plays quite slow and heavy at night. Wind is always a big factor, while there might be also some medium-high humidity in the air.

The match I am thinking about most in a betting fashion is the ultimate battle between tennis styles, the match between two fellow Aussies, Nick Kyrgios and John Millman.

The years of these two couldn’t have been more different too. Nick played 4 matches in 2019 and lost 3 of them, while during those 4 matches he played 11 sets of tennis (4 of them were tie-breaks). He lost to Chardy in Brisbane, to Tomic in Kooyong Exhibition, and to Raonic in Australian Open round 1 clash. He hasn’t been impressive at all this year, while in addition to his poor form he had some serious injury issues. Last year he had a hip injury in August and ended the year in December with an elbow injury, while this year he was bitten by a spider and had some swallowed up ankle. Nothing working in his favor right now, not even the Goddess Fortune didn’t do her magic in the draw as he has to face one of the most serious players on tour.

Besides being a very serious player, Millman is also a very hard worker and one of the biggest fighters there is in ATP rankings. He isn’t that flashy and doesn’t try trick-shots as Nick does, but you can put money on him and you know he will give everything. John has a 5W-4L this year and has defeated Sandgren, Tiafoe, Fucsovics, Delbonis, and Dzumhur so far this year. Last year in February, John played Montpellier indoors and lost in the 2nd round, and also won a Challenger event in Kyoto. The sad thing about his career is that he didn’t even win an ATP event so far, but I think that might change this year, as he truly deserves it!

Motivation is a big part of my bet’s arguments, as Kyrgios usually just clowns around during these small tournaments and loses very often as a big favorite (lost to Chardy as 1.37 fave and Tomic as 1.58, while in second part of 2018 he lost to Nishikori in Wimbledon as 1.40, in Atlanta against Norrie as 1.23, in Tokyo against Gasquet as 1.56, in Shanghai as 1.25 against Klahn, and withdrew before playing Basic in Moskow). We can surely see a pattern here and combining this lack of motivation in small tournaments with his physical problems is a perfect mixture to make Millman favorite here.

Millman will do his best to win a couple of matches here and maybe do a nice run and give himself the possibility to win his maiden ATP title.

These two players have met before, back in 2017 during the US Open first round, and then Millman did win the clash 3-1 (6-3 1-6 6-4 6-1), which also shows us, that him losing a set clearly won’t make him stop fighting. This match is the ultimate betting opportunity in my opinion and that’s why I have shared this #FreeTip with you guys!

I would definitely back Millman at a bookie that doesn’t void a retirement after one set played, as Kyrgios might retire at any point, as he has done in the past.


Millman to win @ 2.03 (10 units) with Matchbook (via SportMarket)


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Australian Open WTA Final – Naomi Osaka v Petra Kvitova – Match Preview and Free Betting Tips #AusOpen #TipstersClub (by Ardeal)

The Australian Open final on the women side will take place 26th of January after 9:30 CET. The match couldn’t have been more interesting as, let’s say, we do have the most in-form two girls facing each other on Rod Laver Arena for the Australian Open trophy. The first contender is Japanese Naomi Osaka, ranked no. 4 in the world, and the holder of the US Open trophy (2018). She will face Czech Petra Kvitova, ranked no. 6.

Amazing enough is that they both play for the perfect Slam Final record, but also for the world no. 1 ranking, a ranking that neither of them have been.


Naomi Osaka

Naomi is a 21 years old girl from Japan, that stands at 1.80m tall, and which uses the right-handed forehand combined with a double-handed backhand. She is trained by Sascha Bajin since 2018 and they have won two titles together, the Indian Wells Masters and the US Open Slam.

Osaka is, basically, a delight to watch, as she is an aggressive baseline player. She has huge raw power in her shots, excelling in the forehand and service departments. Her serves can go over 200 km/h which is pretty top-level on the WTA tour. Her playing style is based on her power, which makes her hit a lot of winners, while her past 2 years has seen her improve her patience on the court and building up points to the level of hitting a winner. The best improvement, by far, in my opinion, is in her mental strength, as she also admitted happily: “Since I was working with [Bajin] — and I tend to be a bit negative on myself — I feel like I’ve gotten a little bit more optimistic … I fight myself a lot, so he’s sort of been, like, the peacemaker.”  


Petra Kvitova

Petra is a Czech professional tennis player aged 28. She is playing at the top level of WTA for 10 years now and has won in her past 2 Slam titles (both in Wimbledon, 2011 and 2014). Besides of those two important titles she also has won 24 other titles (first came in 2009 in Hobart, and last this year in Sydney) which shows a great constancy and quality over 10 years. Petra stands at 1.82m tall and uses the left-handed forehand combined with the double-handed backhand. Her current coach is Jiri Vanek, which trains her since 2016. Along with him, she won Wuhan and WTA Elite Trophy in 2016, Birmingham in 2017, Birmingham, Madrid, Prague, Doha and St. Petersburg in 2018, and Sydney this year.

Kvitova’s playing style is, sort-of, similar to Osaka’s as she is using her power to hit through her opponents. Her biggest weapons are her lefty serve and her huge forehand. The fact that she also possesses a very good backhand has made her one of the greatest players of the past 10 years. However, due to her high-risk game and aggressive style of play, she is known to produce a high number of unforced errors in matches. Movement is another weakness in her game though it has shown significant improvement over the last couple of years as she is now able to run down more balls than before.


Past Slam results

Neither of these two players has excelled so far in the Australian Open tournament. Osaka played only 3 times prior to this final, and she never got past the Round 4 (2018 was the best results, losing to Halep in the Round 4). Petra, on the other hand, has played the Aussie Open since 2008 and her best result was the semifinal lost to Sharapova in 2012. Since that year she never got past the 3rd round, losing to outsiders each time: Robson in 2013, Kumkhum in 2014, Keys in 2015, Gavrilova in 2016, and Petkovic in 2018. She missed the 2017 Aussie Open because of that well-known injury she had (was stabbed by a robber in her hand).

Kvitova has an impressive record in Slam matches with 99 wins and 41 losses, which makes her winning accuracy a top level one, at 71%. Osaka, on the other hand, has a shorter professional career and has only 35 wins and 12 losses, but her winning accuracy is even better, at 74%. Osaka has won 17 matches in Slams and lost only two, in the past 52 weeks, which make her winning accuracy at 89%! She also has won now 13 consecutive Slam matches (as she won US Open 2018).

Both of them have a perfect record in the Slams final they played, as Osaka defeated Serena Williams in the only Slam final played, and Kvitova won both Wimbledon finals played (defeated Bouchard in 2014, and Sharapova in 2011).


Australian Open 2019

Osaka had, arguably, the harder draw to face, as he defeated back-to-back-to-back top 12 players, in Sevastova, Svitolina, and Pliskova. Kvitova has faced only one top-15 player to get to the final, Ash Barty.

The stats during AO2019 show that Kvitova has performed on a stellar level, having a combined hold-break % of 141.18% during her first 6 matches. She also had 3 matches where she didn’t lose the serve, which is rather unseen on the WTA tour. Her best performance, stats-wise was against Anisimova, where she had a 162.50% combined hold-break %. Amazing ist hat she also has lost her serve only 4 times in 6 matches, and a maximum of 2 times during a match (against Rybarikova in the first round).  Kvitova managed to win all her matches in straight sets and to stay on the court a total of 7h and 13m.

Osaka’s stats aren’t that „stellar“ as Kvitova’s, but as I pointed out she has tougher opposition and that’s why she couldn’t have had such numbers. She has a 122.01% hold-break total, which is top level, and considering she faced two top-10 players, and Sevastova (which is also top-10 material) is really amazing. Osaka won 3 matches in straight sets and 3 matches in 3-setters and stayed on the court a total of 9h and 1m.

The time difference spent on the court isn’t that much, so we can assume that none of the two players will have problems regarding fitness and stamina.


Weather

The weather at Melbourne Park is perfect for tennis, at around 21°C, and cloudy sky. The Humidity will be at around 75% and the wind is at around 10 km/h. We can clearly say that the fact that the roof is open is good for this match, while in the possibility of higher temperatures, Osaka will be favored by them, as she loves to play in the heat.


Match-up and possible scenarios

As we see, both of the players had held serve in amazing numbers, Osaka with 81.43% and Kvitova with 92.16%, but also broke serve in stellar fashion. We can expect them to fight off the baseline, as both of them are aggressive baseliners, and hence see a lot of service holds with both protecting their huge serves with attacking tennis. Winners will be double-digits in each set, but I expect them to force the attacks a bit, so there will be a lot of unforced errors, probably. The fact that Osaka possesses an amazing backhand will make her immune to the lefty cross forehand, while the backhand-down-the-line of her, will do a lot of damage for sure (as we saw in all matches played by her, especially the one against Pliskova).

I do expect a long match, and a very intense one too. I doubt that any of these two can win this in an easy fashion, the only possibility this to happen is one of the two has an „off-day“, which is also just improbable seeing their past results in finals, and their past results here at Australian Open.


I will have three bets on this match, all of them will be small staked, anyway. These plays have considered the recent past results, but also the yearly stats on both players, where Osaka has been better overall. The weather and the roof have been considered too, and as long as the roof will be open, I really think that Osaka should be favorite in this match-up.

Osaka to win @ 2.16 (5 units) with Matchbook  (via SportMarket)

Over 2.5 Sets @ 2.50 (2 units) with bet365

Over 21.5 Games @ 1.81 (3 units) with Pinnacle (via SportMarket)


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No Pinnacle, IBC, Matchbook or SBO account? Don’t worry! There is SportMarket for all of these!

We all know which bookies are the best in business and which you need to avoid, or at least need to trick to get money from their pockets.

Once you get to the level of betting where you constantly win you will find out that there are two kinds of bookies around:
1. Where one account is enough for the entire life… And that is the bookie that welcomes winners.
2. Where you need to create accounts once a month with different names because you won. These bookies can be called casual bookmakers and most of them are this kind.

This blog-post is meant to describe better the first category of bookies will include bookies and betting exchanges like Pinnacle, Betfair, Betdaq, GalaxyBet, IBC, ISN, Matchbook, SBO, and Singbet.
These are sites where you can win without the fear of getting limited or suspended because you won. These sites have good limits on the bets and most of the markets that you can find on regular bookmakers.

The main problem with these bookies is that they don’t allow new customers from different countries. Gambling, being a universal activity, many people from many countries want to bet and want to win. Of course, they want to bet where the bookmaker juice is low (their commision on each bet). The closer you get to a 2.00 – 2.00 price combination in a coin flip, the better you are settled for the long run. You might ask now, what is to be done to create these accounts with these bookies if they don’t allow customers from your country.

Here comes into play the sports broker!

CREATE AN ACCOUNT WITH SPORTMARKET BY VISITING SportMarket.com

I will present to you the advantages of using a broker in the long run and assist you through the account creation. SportMarket will create anonymous accounts for you at following bookies/exchanges: Pinnacle, Betfair, Betdaq, GalaxyBet, IBC, ISN, Matchbook, SBO, and Singbet. (You will be able to use most of them, but there will be some missing because of country restrictions)

First of all access SportMarket.com and you will see the following page. The site is slick and looks very good, as it was newly upgraded.

After you hit register button you will get to the account creation page where you need to add the following information from the print-screen:

You can create an account with SportMarket from countries like (stating just the biggest): Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Bosnia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Rep., Denmark, Egypt, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Malaysia, Malta, Mexico, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UAE.

As you see in this list there are a few countries missing, the biggest of them are England and the USA. England (But still can use Ireland) has a no-way policy for Pinnacle accounts, while in the USA there is still a problem with gambling overall.

You can create the account and use as currency: USD, GBP, EUR, SEK, and NOK.

After you hit register you will have to write the Validation Code in the box and hit you agree with everything in the T&Cs (Please do read them, as they have a compact version there). After you hit “Create Account” you will get an email with further information about the broker.

Now you have a new SportMarket account. This might be a bit confusing at the beginning, but it is easy to understand and work within the end.

There are two types of accounts:
– Main SportMarket account (which we created) and where you will see the balances at first
– PRO SportMarket account where you have to move your money once you deposit… Pro will be the place you bet in the end.

Next step for the use of the account is depositing money. You can use Bankwire, Skrill, Neteller, EcoPayz, and Bitcoin. I have used so far Skrill and Bitcoin and it is as easy at it can get.

The minimum deposit amount is €250. Please note that we will charge a 1% fee for deposits over €1,000 and a €10 deposit fee for all deposits under €1,000.

After you deposit, you need to create a pro account by hitting the “Create PRO Account” button at the right top of the page.

After you created that account (note that the password may be different for those two accounts), you need to go to My Account – Transfer and there you can move the money from the Main account to the PRO account.

Now you are set up with the account!

There is another thing you need to do, and that is the KYC procedure where you send a copy of your ID and proof of address, so they won’t get in trouble by allowing “illegal” gamblers to bet with them (from illegal countries). You will get that information when necessary via mail.

As you get the PRO SportMarket account the page is going to look like this:

You can bet on following sports with SportMarket:

Now comes the best part to compare some prices and see some limits available.

I will take a football and a tennis example and compare the prices to your regular bookies.

This is the Premier League page (at the time of writing) and I will analyze the Newcastle v Chelsea match:

Clicking on any odds, for example, the ML on Chelsea you will see all available prices and liquidities for those prices:

As you already knew, Pinnacle often offers the best prices, but now you can also take the bet at Betdaq. The best thing is that no matter which price you choose, SportMarket will bet on the highest available price that has the liquidity you require or will split the amount in more individual bets that have at least the price you selected!

Another fun fact is that you can take 792 euro from Pinnacle with 1.689 and after that Pinnacle will add more liquidity (but sometimes will remove little the price after a larger bet).

Now looking at the Tennis from Winston Salem and at the Struff v Jarry match. You can see that the prices are good and the liquidity is OK (liquidities get even higher on in-play betting). The fact that you can bet several times can make your stake as big as you want in the end.

All these been said, we can acknowledge that using a sports broker that we can trust has a lot of benefits:
– Good prices
– High liquidity
– Choosing from unavailable bookies (location wise)
– Secure
– You don’t need to declare any incomes as SportMarket doesn’t talk to the authorities about your betting
– Safe to use from everywhere in the world (VPN required in the forbidden countries)
– Nice and easy to use mobile site
– Many deposit options
– Choosing the best price automatically from all available ones on the market
– User (Buddy) transfers
– Live Chat (that actually works)
– Very quick and helpful email support

Some might find the following as negatives:
– Minimum deposit is €250 and a 1% (minimum €10) deposit fee
– KYC required
– 1% withdraw fee (minimum €10)
– Minimum withdrawal is €250 and a 1% (minimum €10) withdrawal fee
– Smaller limits than the original bookies (Half limits than an authentic Pinnacle account… But you can bet several times tho)

CREATE AN ACCOUNT WITH SPORTMARKET BY VISITING SportMarket.com

Here Deposit, withdrawals, transfers & fees

I hope I did get all the required information in this blog post and I hope you will enjoy betting with SportMarket in the future. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to contact us! For the future, we will be able to generate some kind of offers for all users that registered from TipstersClub!

Enjoy SportMarket!

Kind regards,
TipstersClub

Australian Open 2019. Alex Bolt v Jack Sock match preview and free tip. (Ardeal)

The match that caught my attention from the ATP side of the first round ist he clash of two players ranked outside the top-100. Homeboy and wildcard, Alex Bolt (ranked #155) will face American ranked #105 in the world, Jack Sock.

Alex played 5 times in the Australian Open, from those he only played twice in the main draw and is yet to win a main draw match. Interesting is that he never lost a match in Australian Open (qualification or main draw) without winning at least one set, and he never lost at the spread offered. In 2017 he won 3 qualification matches (against Copil, Bachinger, and Benneteau) while being the underdog in 2/3 matches. He then lost to Nishioka in the first round (6-4 1-6 6-2 6-4, covering the spread as a 2.47 underdog). In 2018 he got a WC for the main draw and faced Troicki (Bolt was 3.74 underdog) where he lost in 5 sets, after being 2 sets up. He lost at 6 games, covering the +6.5 offered spread once again.

Jack Sock is a former #8 player in the world, and a Masters title winner, back in 2017 in Paris Bercy. After that, he had a horrific year in 2018 winning just 10 matches and losing 25. In 2019 he played two exhibition matches in Kooyong, both lost in 3 sets- against Tomic and Shapovalov. His results in Australia are horrible as well (by his past standards). He lost in 2016 in the second round as 1.46 favorite against Rosol (won the first round in 5 sets against Fritz as 1.45 favorite). In 2017 (his best year on tour) he won against Herbert (as 1.19), and against Khachanov (as 1.33) and lost in the 3rd round to Tsonga. Last year he lost in the first round to Sugita in 4 sets, being again favorite 1.41.

Alex is a lefty player with a huge serve and a killer forehand. I am sure, even he won’t win in the end (despite I expect him to win too) he will stay close. Sock’s return game is very bad, while his backhand is his kryptonite, and as long Bolt hits his casual cross forehands to the Sock BH he will win rather easy some rallies. Sock has a 1-4 record against lefties in Slam matches, losing to Vesely, Ramos, Bemelmans, and Nadal. His ATP record against lefties is rather good having 28 wins and 12 losses (most of the wins came in the 2016-2017 period when he was red hot). Both have a very low hold/break stats, being under 100% (which almost average level), but Sock has better stats tho (96.3% vs 81.9%). The last 15 matches played by these on hard courts show that Sock is horrible (4W-11L vs 7W-8L).

Bottom line, Bolt is a WC receiver, he is Australian (crowd will be behind him), Bolt’s body is also used to the high temperature (will be 34 deg C by the match time), while Jack is known to struggle in extreme heat. I think Bolt will comfortably covert he spread by winning at least 1 set against Sock. There are no signs that the American will come playing hats off and that’s why I back against an out-of-form player.

This match has been tipped January 11th as Bolt +5.5 @ 1.88 (min. 1.70) (8 units with Pinnacle), but now he dropped.


Alex Bolt +5.5 AH @ 1.88 (min. 1.70) (Pinnacle via SportMarket) – 8 units


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You can subscribe to the Australian Open 2019 package by clicking on this Link


If you don’t have an active Pinnacle account I can suggest trustworthy broker whom I use for some time now! Check out SportMarket and create an account: Link Here

You can read the SportMarket.com review by visiting the Blog-Post:

“No Pinnacle, IBC, Matchbook or SBO account? Don’t worry! There is SportMarket for all of these!”

Australian Open 2019. Venus Williams v Mihaela Buzarnescu match preview and free tip. (Ardeal)

One of the best matches to bet in the first round of Australian Open is one in the WTA draw; a match between veteran American, Venus Williams, and lefty Romanian, Mihaela Buzarnescu.

38 years young and ranked #37 in the world, Venus didn’t get any seedings in the Australian Open draw and has, let’s say, a hard road ahead if she wants to achieve something during these two weeks.

Venus had a decent 2018 with 17 wins and 11 losses, from those 12 wins and 7 losses on hard courts. Her best results came at the beginning of the year, a reason why I do back her here. She took a set off Kerber in Sydney back then and lost to Bencic in the 1st round of Australian Open (a hard opponent to face in R1). After those two matches, she got to the Indian Wells SF and tot e Miami QF.

In the past 52 weeks, she only had a single lefty player, Arantxa Rus, which she defeated 6-1 6-4 in the Fed Cup in February 2018. Her career record against lefties shows that she doesn’t really struggle against this kind of players, having won 73 matches and lost only 16. In 2017 she won all matches against lefties, against Safarova, Haddad, Kerber, and Kvitova.

The main reason why I do bet on Venus here is, in fact, Mihaela Buzarnescu. She did injure herself during Montreal 2018 (August), where she twisted her ankle. Since then she won 0 professional matches, losing to Sasnovich twice and Minella in 2018, and Tsurenko and Bencic in 2019. She did win 3 matches in the France Championship in November 2018 (a Club League), where she defeated Parmentier, Kerkhove, and Soler (not really important in my opinion).  This year Buzarnescu lost 6-0 6-2 to Tsurenko and 4-6 6-3 7-5 to Bencic (could have lost this match in 2 sets too, but Bencic struggled with some fitness after playing so much Hopman).

Buzarnescu’s record in Australian Open is 2 wins (both qualification matches) and 3 losses, and only one main draw appearance (lost 6-2 6-3 to Wozniacki in the 1st round of 2018). Venus, on the other hand, has a big history at this Slam, reaching two finals, 1 SF and 6 quarterfinals during her long career.

Last 15 matches on hard courts show some difference in form, Venus having a 10-5 record, while Micky an 8-7 one. The Serve/Break stats during last year on hard courts show Venus a bit better (103.5% vs 102.1%).

I have watches Buzarnescu play in past months, and she still struggles big time with the movement. The biggest flaw in her game is the mental instability, as she constantly talks to herself, throws the racquet and swears in Romanian. This kind of attitude will be punished by an experienced player like Venus.

For me it is clear that Venus should win this match and I will back her at 1.727 with Pinnacle (10 units).


Venus Williams to win @ 1.727 (Pinnacle via SportMarket) – 10 units


If you enjoyed this preview, just subscribe to the #AusOpen premium package and don’t miss any premium tips offered by Ardeal (Tipster Page Here)!

You can subscribe to the Australian Open 2019 package by clicking on this Link


If you don’t have an active Pinnacle account I can suggest trustworthy broker whom I use for some time now! Check out SportMarket and create an account: Link Here

You can read the SportMarket.com review by visiting the Blog-Post:

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Benoit Paire v Kenny De Schepper | 06.11.2018 | Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger | Tennis | Match preview and Free Tip by Ardeal

There are a couple of more weeks with at least average quality tennis to be played (ATP Challenger level), with the last one finishing 25th of November 2018, in Andria (Italy). This week we have 4 tournaments to be played, and nice to see such a well-balanced mixture, with two Challengers played indoors in Europe (Bratislava and Mouilleron le Captif), one played on hard outdoor in USA (Knoxville), and one in Uruguay on outdoor clay (Montevideo).

 

The match I will analyze today is the first-round match between two Frenchies, held in France.  The match will have facing no. 53 in the world, Benoit Paire, and no. 209, Kenny De Schepper.  Benoit Paire is a 29 years-old Frenchie, with a height of 196cm and using a Right-Handed Forehand and a Two-Handed Backhand. He is being coached, currently, by Jean-Charles Diame. Kenny De Schepper is a 31 years-old Frenchie, with a height of 203cm and using a Left-Handed Forehand and a One-Handed Backhand. He is being coached, currently, by Henri Fabrega.

Paire’s style of play is characterized by its flashiness, unpredictability and at times inconsistency. The main strength of his game is his double-handed backhand, known for its speed and spin. Paire often uses topspin backhands crosscourt at great speed and acute angles to set up a powerful backhand down-the-line to finish off points. In contrast, his forehand is relatively less powerful and consistent, particularly when played on the defense, to the extent that he’s been known to hit backhands inside-out. Paire is also known for his ability and willingness to play drop-shots often on both the forehand and backhand wing throughout matches. Paire possesses a powerful but inconsistent first serve and serves-and-volleys on occasion. Above all, Paire is known for his flashiness on the court. He is known to hit a variety of high-risk shots and trick shots, such as the frontal and back tweener, jumping tweener, drop shots that backspin towards the net and topspin backhands at extremely acute angles, even when unnecessary to win the point. Because of this, he often lightens the mood in matches and wins the crowd’s favor. Of course, because of the same flashy shots, he takes he is known to be one of the most inconsistent players on tour. He is also known to be a choker and to be losing his head when his shots don’t bring the desired results in a short time. He is a player that “loves a good tank”, and there are plenty of examples where he didn’t really bother to do anything on the court.

De Schepper’s style of play can be characterized almost to be opposite to this clash’s opponent. He is known to fight for every ball, run around the court from side to side and slicing, or hitting deep almost every ball, but rarely attacking for a winner, and only when in a great position. He is also known for his good serve that slides away from the opponent and having 2.03m and 104kg one can definitely assume that the power in the service is also very good. The only aspect that is worth mentioning is that Kenny had some back problems which have limit his swing and power used during his service motion. Nevertheless, he possesses a fine service, combined with a good defense and an excellent reach and touch at the net. His movement is shaky, but at least he has the head to fight till the end no matter what the result is.

 

Benoit Has played a lot of tennis this year, with 65 matches (won 32 matches) played in singles and 19 matches (won 9 of them) played in doubles. He had some average results during this year, like the SFs in Pune and Sydney in January, and couple of 3rd rounds in Masters tournaments. Since Wimbledon, he has struggled to find some form, winning only twice 2+ consecutive matches, and one of those times his opponent retired (Pospisil). The fact that he hasn’t played any Challenger Tour matches in 2018 shows us that his ranking level allowed him to get in many main-draws, or at least find some spots in the qualifications of all important matches. It is for the first time since 2008 where he didn’t play any Challenger matches the entire year (besides the actual one). Last year he played in April Sophia Antipolis Ch (lost the final to Bedene), and also the current event (Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger) where he retired in the first round 6-1 5-4 up to Romain Barbosa. Unfortunately for us, his results in this particular Challenger event are good, with a trophy in 2015, a semifinal in 2016 and that mentioned retirement in 2017. Fact is that he hasn’t really “crushed” any of his opponents, losing sets in 6/9 matches that have been finished. The other wins that occurred in straight sets, came against Lestienne (13-10), Janvier (12-8), and Eysseric (12-7). Paire managed to lose as the favorite in the past months to Struff (7-6 6-3 in Winston Salem), Maden (6-4 3-6 6-3 in Metz), Gerasimov (6-4 6-4 in Moskow), Popyrin (6-3 6-3 in Basel), and Fucsovics (6-4 6-4 in Paris Bercy). To top all these bad recent results he also had some physical problems during 2018 and took medical time-outs several times.

 

His current opponent would be clearly the underdog in any serious match between these two and is priced also 3.15 by Pinnacle to win this match. But… And here is a big but. De Schepper ties the direct meetings with Paire (2-2), both having won 1-each in the past 3 years. Paire won in Cherbourg Challenger (indoor back in the days Paire played a lot of these tournaments), while De Schepper won 2-1 in Umag last year (on clay- which is his worst surface of all to play on). To be perfectly honest, De Schepper had a shitty year in 2018, with a record of 27W-32L in singles and 4W-7L in doubles. He started the season with a semifinal in Noumea CHallenger and a final in Koblenz, but after that nothing fell the right way for this gentle giant. He got some good results recently, with a semifinal in Mallorca (start of September) and with a semifinal in Orleans (end of September). His past two matches have been both lost, being the favorite, both lost in close fashion 7-6 6-4, to Stakhovsky in Antwerp Q, and Bonzi in Eckental Challenger.

 

My main bet on this match, despite me thinking that “King Kenny” will win it, is the +3 Asian Handicap on the big lefty French player. Kenny has played a tie-break in 7 out of his last 8 indoor matches (the only one that had no tie-break was a clear win over Maden 6-0 6-4). He covered the +3 handicap in 7 out of the last 9 matches (but two of them were voids as mentioned before). The reason why the Asian Handicap is the main bet is that Paire is known to tank sets and lose them 6-1 or 6-2, which virtually would guarantee to win this bet. Benoit has a fairly inconsistent serve and the fact that this match will be played in an unimportant “venue” is also a bonus that can push him to tank. Of Course, Kenny is a limited player that can do only “this” much, but with a little help (which I am sure he will get) he might also get the win. Paire can get frustrated very rapidly and start hitting unforced-error after unforced-error. How do I see the match? I see some long rallies, easy holds from Kenny and a lot of unforced errors from Benoit from his forehand side. I don’t want to seem over-confident of this bet, but I think that Kenny will win it 6-2 7-6 or something like that, winning at least a set is a banker in my book.


Kenny De Schepper +3 games @ 1.91 with 10 units

(from Pinnacle via broker SportMarket)


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The ‘Champ Champ’ Daniel Cormier will school Derrick Lewis

Madison Square Garden sets the stage for UFC230 this weekend in New York, without surprise, the UFC has failed to give this card the promotion it deserves.

Daniel Cormier (21-1-0) takes on ‘The Black Beast’ Derrick Lewis in a 5 round Heavyweight division title fight. The turnaround for Lewis has been less than a month as we saw him knockout Alexander Volkov at the beginning of October at UFC226.

Any die-hard realises Lewis has one path to victory in this fight, he either catches Cormier with that huge one punch KO or he losses and giving the fact Cormier is p4p (in my opinion) one of the greatest fighters we’ve been blessed to watch, Derricks chances of a victory are very slim.

The 39-year-old former Olympic champion Daniel Cormier has had one of the most decorative careers than any other fighter in the UFC. With his one kryptonite and only loss being Jon Jones, I truly believe DC will end his career defeating Jon! The current light heavyweight and heavyweight champion Cormier has defeated a long list of killers from strike force and the UFC… Anderson Silva, Frank Mir, Roy Nelson, Dan Henderson, Rumble Johnson, Alex Gustafsson, Volkan Ozdemir & Stipe Miocic just to name a few.

I don’t think DC will risk a standup war with Derrick, straight into round 1 I vision the champ using his ultra high-level wrestling to wear down the black beast right off the bat. I wouldn’t be surprised if Daniel instantly takes this fight to the floor and finishes it via submission or ground and pound in round 1, but if DC doesn’t finish right away it’s going to be a long night for Lewis. Daniel will smoother him and keep himself well away from that devastating KO power that Derrick possesses. Eventually, DC will get the finish I have no doubt in that.

I’m not sure taking a fight 4 weeks out from getting lit up by Volkan until the 3rd round finish was a smart move by Lewis, but I also realise in this sport you have to take your chances. Unfortunately for Lewis, he’s matched up with one of the greats, without taking anything away from Lewis and his accomplishments he just doesn’t match up to the skill set of Cormier.

So this week’s free tip is quite obvious but the price is really ugly so I’m going to double up with another matchup I think relies on the weaker opponent needing to put all hope in the KO which is Isreal Adesanya vs Dereck Brunson. Israel ‘style-bender’ Adesanya will be the second British born champion in the UFC next to Michael Bisping, Brunson is just a bump in the road that Adesanya has to drive over.

The striking and movement skill of Isreal is a nice breath of fresh air to watch in the octagon, he’s like a Jon Jones/Mcgregor hybrid. Youtube search the man and enjoy his highlight reels, you won’t be disappointed.

The bookie knows what’s good too, as both Daniel and Israel are priced quite high. Combine them both and that will be this week’s free tip.

Free Prediction: Daniel Cormier & Israel Adesanya both win
Stake : 5units @ 1.67

Tune in this Saturday/Sunday night on BTsports from 12 midnight BST for UFC230 @ Madison Square Garden.


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Points gained – Is this advanced stat really good for NBA predictions?

The POINTS GAINED stat

This might be a little confusing especially if you are not into basketball advanced stats but bear with me for this blog post and I will try to make it easy to understand. I only heard about this stat this summer listening to a podcast but at first, I did not give too much importance to it. However, after the first matches of the season, I am starting to believe the ‘Points Gained’ stats can help a lot when we want to predict how good a team will be. So let’s start this by explaining what points gained means. I won’t go in details but this state refers to how more points a certain player gain than the average player in the NBA. For example, the leader in points gained last season was Curry at +4.7 points which means that with the 19.5 scoring opportunities he has per game he scores 4.7 more points than the average NBA player would score with the same amount of scoring opportunities. The next players in the standings are Durant, Harden, Towns, Lebron and Davis so it is pretty safe to say that this stat is pretty good in measuring player actual contribution.

How does this stat actually helps us?

So the next step we need to take so we can predict a team performance is to add all their player’s points gained. Last season this worked pretty well and most notably the Rockets had almost the same number of points gained as the Warriors. As we saw last season the Rockets actually had more wins than the Warriors in the regular season and almost won in the Western Conference Finals.  This model also predicted 7 of the top 8 offenses in the Western Conference which is very impressive. So what is this model saying about the new season? Well… The Warriors are still number 1 as everyone could guess but we have a new number 2: the New Orleans Pelicans. I was not very sure what to believe about this team but the first 2 games of the season confirmed the points gained theory. The Pelicans offense was absolutely unstoppable and they actually became the first team in the last 20 years that managed to score at least 130 points in both of their first 2 games of a season. Is this a coincidence? Maybe, but considering other teams that are high in the points gained standings also started the season very strong I believe there is a chance it is more than that.

Why the points gained stat likes the Pelicans so much?

The main reason is their superstar Anthony Davis who is one of the best players in the world. He is very good in points gained too and considering that he is still young I expect him to have another huge season and lead his team to glory. However, the thing that makes the Pelicans so good in points gained is that the majority of their players are not negative in this statistic. Actually, many of their players including Mirotic, Holiday, Miller and Randle are above average. In contrast, a team like the Rockets may have some very good players in points gained like Harden, Paul or Capela but they also have some high negative players like Carmelo or Carter Williams replacing positive players like Ariza and Mbah a Moute.

Are the Pelicans good in real life too?

So if you read what I said so far it is clear that the points gained statistic likes the Pelicans a lot. The same statistic that predicted the Rockets will be great in 2017/18 says that this is the Pelicans year. But what is my opinion on the Pelicans in real life? I will only say that I absolutely loved what I saw in the first 2 matches and if they stay healthy I am pretty sure they will be a problem this year. Now let’s take a short look at their roster. Davis is one of the best players in the world, a two-way guy that will be a Hall-Of-Famer and have a good chance to win the MVP. Holiday is a great complementary star who also plays hard both on offense and defense. He is a former-Starr and if he would’ve stayed healthy in recent years his reputation would’ve been way better in my opinion. He showed how good he is in the playoffs last year dominating superstar Lillard in the first round sweep. Another important piece is Nikola Mirotic who started the season with 2 incredible performances. He won’t play like that all season long but he is an underrated player. Last year he played for the Bulls until being traded to the Pels and when he was available the team record was 14-11. Without him, they went 13-47. If that’s not impressive I don’t know what it is. The biggest acquisition this summer was Julius Randle and I was very impressed by this young man progress in the second part of the last season. In the first 2 matches of this season, he looked even better making some threes and being dominant attacking the paint. Randle is a unique player that is very hard to defend by shorter and weaker players. In a league that rely more and more on switching a player like Randle becomes even more valuable. Another acquisition this summer is Payton who was signed to replace Rondo. While I am not very high on the young guard I could easily see him having his most efficient season in his career considering that he never played for a team that had a good until the Pelicans. Some other important pieces are E’twaun Moore and Darius Miller and I like them both as rotation players . Moore is a versatile player that can have some scoring outbursts now and then while Miller is playing his second NBA season after some good years spent in Europe. If we also consider how good they looked in the playoffs last year I believe there are enough reasons to believe that they can have a very good season and actually be better than anyone in their division.

The Southwest Division and my free tip

So my free tip for you will be the Pelicans to win their division. There are 3 main reasons I like this bet: the Pelicans strength(see above), the other teams in the division got weaker and the value in the odds. Firstly I will say that I still believe the Rockets are very strong with the MVP James Harden and hall of famer point guard Chris Paul leading their offence. However, they already lost 2 of their 3 games so far including a big loss against the Pelicans in the first match. They were looking lost on defence and their moves this summer makes them weaker. The other team with chances to win this division is the Spurs but considering they lost Kawhi Leonard and some veterans like Manu, Parker and Green and also their starting pointguard Murray will be injured all season I can’t see them getting close to 50 wins. Betway still offers 10.0 odds for the Pelicans to win their division which I believe is way too high. Many other bookies offers between 7.5 and 9 odds which I still believe represents great value.

Hope you liked this blog post and if that is so I will post more when I find a good subject and time allow.


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His stats* since he started with TipstersClub:

Total Profit 74.690 units
ROI 7.241%
Bets won 136/254 (53.543%)
Total Stake 1,031.50 units
Average Stake 4.061 units
Average Odds 1.992

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Aspen Ladd Coming Into UFC229 Straight Up Bad !!!

It’s been a struggle to maintain focus on some of the lower card belts heading into UFC 229 this weekend because let’s face it, McGregor/Khabib is so highly anticipated that everywhere you turn its either a ‘The Eagle’ or ‘The Notorious one’ all up in your grill, but if you’re interested in some potential money makers this weekend I think Aspen Ladd might be a great play for punters.

Aspen is a young up and coming prospect in the womans bantamweight division, currently ranked #9 in the official UFC rankings holding a professional record of 6 fights and 0 losses with only one fight going to the judges scorecards when I say ‘Aspen Ladd is straight up bad’ I do not mean this in the literal sense… she is one tough s.o.b !

Sijara Eubanks (who headlines the main event at UFC230) has been the only female to escape the octagon without being knocked out or submitted by Ladd but still losing by unanimous decision in a convincing victory for the Californian native. It’s been just under a year since Ladd made her UFC debut and with a couple canceled bouts on top off almost a year of free training down at MMA Gold Fight Team, I believe it is her time to shine here. At a tender age of 23, Aspen reminds me of the female equivalent of Sage Northcutt constantly evolving and growing . Without a doubt in my mind, she will be top #5 contender in the near future.

Her opponent, Tanya Evinger is at the opposite end of the scale in terms of career and experience. She is 37 years old with a lot of experience, most notably managing to survive two rounds against Cyborg which many ladies have failed to do. She is now dropping weight and taking a fight with a miniature bull, Aspen is going to walk her down and throw some mean hands at Tanya and although we know Tanya thrives in a dog fight I feel like she will want to avoid that with Aspen.

Aspens base is clearly boxing, her hands have impressed me in all of her 6 professional fights, I’m pretty sure Tanya will want to look for the take-down and avoid any sort of striking match-up with Ladd otherwise she might be seeing stars in the early rounds. That said, Aspen does hold a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu and 1 submission victory is her short term career.

I’m looking forward to this match-up, take your money and lay it on Aspen Ladd because at a price like -167 / 1.60 … another TKO victory will sure add to her value and you might not see Aspen coming in at a price like this again.

Scheduled to be the one of the biggest fight card’s in UFC history, tune into UFC229 live at 3 AM BST on BT Sport.

Aspen Ladd To Win @ 1.60

Stake : 1.5 units