World Cup – No Surprises, No Risks

The FIFA World Cup 2018 will be the 21st FIFA World Cup, a quadrennial international football tournament contested by the men’s national teams of the member associations of FIFA. It is scheduled to take place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018.

Our International Football expert, Record (visit his Tipsters Page), will start a specialized package just for the World Cup. Take the World Cup subscription with Record, and if we don’t turn a profit after the competition, we will refund the cost of your subscription AND give you a FREE month with Record when the new football season starts.

Unknowns can turn a good bet bad, we know. Generally, when we bet, we want to be in possession of all the facts. The weather, team news, motivation, injuries, referees… are just a few of things we need to consider if we are to make money from betting on football. And let’s face it, money is the reason we are doing this.

It’s why the World Cup can be a tricky competition to master. Being a pro-gambler for some years, I make my living via betting on football on a daily basis. They say stick to what you know and as I watch lower league English football every day, know the players, the referees, the grounds, it makes sense to focus on just a small segment of the beautiful game.

This gives me an edge but that doesn’t mean we have to leap into the unknown for the upcoming festival of football in Russia. Luckily, as you can see in my bio, I have long made international football an area of focus. Sure, there are few more unknowns but crucially, the market is not as informed as it should be.

Take the last World Cup, where the layers constantly underestimated Algeria. This was despite the quality of the players, the excellence of manager, Vahid Halilhodžić (recently sacked by Japan), and their impressive form going into Brazil. As such, I was able to tip up their qualification to the knockout stages for the first time in their history and call that memorable 4-2 win over South Korea.

My betting focus is to understand as much as I can about all the teams in Russia – though admittedly Panama is difficult assignment!
It is research that pays. Take Morocco for instance. They are currently priced 500 + on the exchange. They are priced at 5s for qualification (less on the exchange interestingly) and they have a lot going for them.

This is a team that qualified from a difficult African group – including Ivory Coast, Gabon, and Mali. Not only did they qualify, they didn’t concede a goal.

The manager is Herve Renard – a wily old dog and one of the better managers in this tournament.

On the playing front, Hakim Ziyech of Ajax is the creative heart of the team in a 4-3-3 formation. Sofiane Boufal may be a known name in the UK, but he struggles to get on the team. Add in defenders, Hakimi of Real Madrid and Benatia of Juventus, it’s quickly apparent this is a squad with the potential to surprise.

And when we are parting with our hard-earned money, surprises are the last thing we want.

So, here’s the offer. Take a World Cup subscription with Record and if I don’t grow your bankroll, you get a 200% Money Back Guarantee! (we will refund the cost of your subscription AND give you a FREE month with Record when the new football season starts!)

The ultimate risk-free trial, with no strings attached and certainly no surprises.

Early Days, Learning all the time!

We are now a couple of months into our journey at TipstersClub.com and like yourselves, we are learning week by week. That motto should follow you all your life as we never stop learning, changing, developing as when we do our edge has gone.

My motivation for being involved is pretty simple, all my life I have been around the professional sport, high-level betting poker or edge finding but I am getting older and have been through so many betting accounts in family and friends names that it gets harder and harder to get on. That said, it never really stops me and I love nothing more than destroying bookmakers, after all, they get away with not taking bets from law-abiding citizens in what is meant to be a democracy.

Bookmakers are lazy, why you may ask? Truth is, whatever they say, they are only interested in problem gamblers and getting social gamblers onto house games where they control the edge. The Gambling Commission is a disgrace typically a bunch of civil servants who do nothing and only pay lip service. Rant over! This, however, works for us, punters, who know were the edge is, as they are always trying to attract new customers with incorrect prices.

As you know I, Craig29-147s, cover snooker and golf but with snooker seasons five weeks away I am going to talk a little about our golf models.
There are several excellent tipsters around but in truth, they are limited in understanding how a professional sportsman mind works. That is the edge I will give you over time, the insecurities, the expectations, the mental let down week on week, the list goes on and on…

This is a big reason for us offering both Outrightand Places models, some professionals are mentally comfortable with winning, but importantly many are not and never will be, that however does not mean they are not profitable, in actual fact the opposite can apply as bookmakers fraction off win market into place market price. This means that journeyman professionals with consistent statistics are often overpriced in top 5, top 10 and top 20.

The higher volume of turnover is achieved on the more fancied players whom we will rarely tip in place model at the high end of the market leaving market value for us.

Some professionals are habitual fast starters or poor finishers, why? The answer is simple: life is breed from learned behavior, this works brilliantly for us especially with the fast starters repeatedly having good first rounds and winning a market that has no personal pressure. Dead heat rules can hurt in this market thus we will never tip under 50/1 and rarely under 100/1 as this is not +EV.

This is not to say that some professionals don’t manage to swim against the tide, a sports psychologist can be a real long-term investment and help in changing learned behavior so I never try to pigeonhole player with the same identity, always being sensitive to changing dynamics.

Lots of things change like nappy factor which has been a profitable line over the years, players lose people close to them and this releases their shackles as “fear of losing”subsides. This even has a positive effect on proven winners.

Always, plenty to think about and I hope you’ve enjoyed first entry, future blogs will go into these issues in more detail with plenty more on top…