The new Snooker Season is just over a week away

With the new snooker season only a week away it’s time for me, this week, to price up next weeks qualifying matches at the Preston Guild Hall (2nd July to 9th July).

With their time off some players will have taken a well deserved holiday, others will have enjoyed time without a cue in their hand, some especially the Q School qualifiers will be razor sharp and never keener, either way, the few weeks off will enable players to start afresh with some technique tinkering, new cue, and less mental baggage than normal.

This, however, returns quickly for some once the new season gets in full swing as learned behavior is hard to shake long term but any bets we have, our staking plan will cover these variables and you can expect stakes to raise as the season gets in full swing.

The two qualifying events are the Kaspersky Riga Masters (7 frame matches) and the World Open (9 frame matches).

Some players will be under-prepared as we mentioned earlier, some will be very sharp so these are perfect dynamics to bet with, top players need a break after the hard season so this is not a criticism just a fact of a top snooker players’ life.

These early qualifying rounds and any early rounds are where value often lay in abundance, I will tweet when tips are posted and if possible will tweet to let you know when to expect them.

In my bio, I said that you can expect the majority of tips in early rounds so be ready and prepared to hit the ground running bearing in mind our staking plan will steadily increase as the season gets in full swing.

Remember it’s a long season and I hope you’re going to enjoy the journey, and also make some money via @TipstersClub!

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World Cup 2018 – FREE outright tip – No Surprises, No Risks – 200% Money-Back Guarantee

What’s a World Cup without a dark horse? And no Belgium doesn’t count.

Looking at the Exchange, let’s look at the team with a 5 percent chance or less. First up is Portugal, who can be backed at 27s. They are the reigning European champions, they have the second-best player in the world up front and have talented understudies in Bernardo Silva, Guedes and Guerreiro.

They are well coached, certainly streetwise and were my tip to win the Euros, which makes me forever grateful for their past glories.

But the past is the past and now their time has passed. Pepe and Alves are 71 between them and their group is not as simple as portrayed.

At the 30s is Uruguay and now we are talking. Partnerships all over the pitch from the Athletico Madrid pairing of Godin and Giminez to Suarez and Cavani up top. Seven of the successful 2010 semi-finalists remain, but to counter the aging, manager Tabarez has introduced the young guns into midfield. Expect Arsenal target, Torreira, Inters’s Vecino and Juve’s Bentancur to show. If they show well, then who knows…

Croatia at 38s is less interesting. For a start, they are in the toughest group. They are aging, without the young talent in midfield and off the pitch, they are an accident waiting to happen, as seen at the last Euros.

At the big prices, we have Denmark 120s and Serbia 180s and Peru 230s. The latter two I find highly doubtful – Peru are susceptible in the air and I don’t expect them to exit the group, while Serbia looks nice on paper, but recently changed the manager. New guy Krstajic has no experience and dramatic change at this point is hardly the ideal preparation.

Which leaves Denmark. My tip to squeeze out Peru, Denmark have a world-class talent in midfield, pace on the wings in Sisto and a solid block with Delaney protecting Kjaer, Christensen and Schmeichel at the back.

Free bet

Denmark to Qualify – 3 units – 1.8 (Exchange or Matchbook)

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World Cup 2018 – FREE outright tip – No Surprises, No Risks – 200% Money-Back Guarantee

Viva Espana

With the World Cup starting in four days, it’s time to nail our colors to the mast. Four teams are trading at single figures and for me, the winner lies within this quartet. Brazil head the market, available at 5.4. Manager Tite has brought the feelgood factor back and the team balances the solid midfield engine of Fernandinho, Paulinho, and Casemiro, with the flair of the forwards, Jesus, Neymar, and Coutinho.

The concerns for me is the space behind the fullbacks and how the team handles the high press, which is something they have limited experience of. At 5.4, this is a team I respect but feel can be taken on.
Germany is next in the market at 6.00. Again, the quality of the team cannot be doubted, with the sublime Kroos pulling the strings. This is a team that presses better than most and are built on the solid foundations of Neuer, Kimmich, Boateng, Hummels, and Hector. Werner will lead the line and maybe a little green for this level and Khedira feels like he could be isolated against the better teams.

When it comes to pressing and tactical innovation, we come to third favorites, Spain. For me, Spain are the best team in the tournament. They have the best keeper in De Gea, the best defence in Carvajal, Ramos, Pique and Alba. They press better than anyone else and have the guile of Isco, Silva and Iniesta in the forward third.

No team is perfect. Busquets is potentially in decline, while striker, Costa is unsure of his place, with Aspas and Rodrigo viable alternatives. However, all things being equal, 7.5 seems a good price for the most complete team on the tournament.

Making up the four favorites are France– a team I am happy to lay. I remain skeptical about the manager Deschamps and remember, this is a team that lost to Sweden and drew with Belarus and Luxembourg in qualifying. Deschamps appears to have plumped for 4-3-3, which means star forward, Griezmann is pushed out wide and adds to the concerns that he will struggle to accommodate the riches available to him.

3 units Spain 7.5

Tomorrow, we will take a look at the dark horses.

So, here’s the offer. Take a World Cup subscription with Record and if I don’t grow your bankroll, you get a 200% Money Back Guarantee! (we will refund the cost of your subscription AND give you a FREE month with Record when the new football season starts!)

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Roland Garros Women’s Final: Simona Halep v Sloane Stephens (Preview and Betting Tip)

The Roland Garros final comes with some nice betting opportunities, in my opinion. Number one in the world and #1 seed, Simona Halep, will face number 10 in the world and 10th seed, American Sloane Stephens in an epic clash on 9th of June, around 15:00 French Time.

This is the most important match of Halep’s career, by far, and also one of the most facile she could ever have. Let’s talk a little about Halep here. She loves the red dirt and her favorite tournament is Roland Garros. She has an amazing 173W-59L on clay in her career. In her last 3 seasons, she lost only 9 battles on clay and won 45 of them, winning 2 Masters titles and 1 WTA title during that time.

Her results in Roland Garros can be called good, reaching 3 finals in the past 5 seasons, lost final in 2014 to Sharapova, lost final in 2017 to Ostapenko and now will face Sloane in 2018 final.  The hardest to digest for Halep was the final against Ostapenko when she was 1.44 fave to win the title, and she was 6-4 3-0*up and had 3 double-break points over Ostapenko… From that point, Halep lost 6 of the last 8 service games and faced BPs in 7 of those 8. It is true that  Ostapenko was in the zone in the last 2 sets hitting 40 winning during those sets.

Halep’s campaign this year in Roland Garros was quite impressive, to be honest, despite starting really slow (was down 5-0 to Riske in the 1st set played in #RG18). After that, she won next two sets 6-1 6-1 to Riske(#83), won 6-3 6-1 to Townsend(#72), 7-5 6-0 to Petkovic(#107), 6-2 6-1 to Mertens(#1), 6-7 6-3 6-2 to Kerber(#12) and 6-1 6-4 to Muguruza(#3).  She was VERY impressive during all her matches and she spent 9 hours 7 minutes on-court during her 6 matches played. Look at the stats of 2018 for Halep: 70.7% service games won and 49.7% of the return games, during the 32 matches played. That is a combined ratio of 120,40, which INSANELY good! If those were insanely good, just take a look at the #RG18 stats: She held serve 43/57 service games (75,44%) and broke serve 38/60 return games (63,33%)… this combined ratio give her a total of 138,77… And this stats came from opposing players like Muguruza, Mertens, and Kerber!

Stephens is the hard-court player that got into the final by chance (in my opinion). She has nothing to do here and defeated players like Rus, Frech, Giorgi, Kontaveit, Kasatkina and Keys to get here. Only players which were made for clay that she defeated (and have a high level of tennis) were Kontaveit (which came after 2+ hours against Kvitova) and Kasatkina (which lost her head during the QF). During her 21 matches played in 2018, she broke 47.8% of times and held serve 64,3%. The combined total is 112,10, compared to 120,40 of Halep. During Roland Garros, she has broken 31/56 return games (55,36%) and held serve 47/55 (85,45%)… The combined is better than Halep’s and is just a combination of weak opponents, luck, and poor performances: 140,81, compared to the 138,77 of Halep. The results of Sloane on clay in her career are 86W-45L and has reached 4 times the R16 in Roland Garros so far. Her last losses at RG were against Halep, Williams, and Pironkova.

If the stats and opponents at Roland Garros aren’t enough, the head-to-head results and match-up will make you understand why Halep should win this match rather easily. Halep won last 4 direct matches, all oft hem in straight sets. There was only one clay court match played in the last 4 (and all in straight sets), the one in Roland Garros 2014, where Halep won 6-4 6-3 (both players improved since quite heavily). Last two matches were played on Sloane’s favorite surface (hard courts), in AMERICA (where Sloane plays her best tennis). Halep won 7-6 6-0 in Washington and 6-2 6-1 in Cincinnati. Let’s talk stats of those last two matches because the other come in 2015 or older.  During those two matches, Halep held serve 15/16 service games (93,75%) and broke serve 9/17 return games (52,94%), which gives her a total of 146,69. Sloane, on the other hand, held serve 8/17 service games (47,06%) and broke serve 1/16 (6,25%), which gives her a total of 53,31. Remember she broke Halep just once (Halep biggest weakness is her serve).

Match-up wise, we can see that Halep DOESN’T struggle against Sloane in any way, on any given surface. She can outlast Sloane in rallies, she can punish her serve while protecting her weak serve quite impressively. I have no doubt that Halep has a better forehand, a better backhand, a better movement, a better stamina, a better clay-court overall tennis, while Sloane has just a better serve and a better record in Slam finals (Opposition were hugely different- I am sure Sloane would have lost all 3 Halep finals in straight sets).

The only factor that I can think of, that can influence in any way the outcome, is the fact that Halep lost all 3 Slam finals (Sharapova- RG14. Ostapenko- RG17, Wozniacki- AO18), and all in 3 hard sets, while Sloane won her only Slam final (Keys US17), quite easily. There also will be huge pressure on Halep, as everybody says „This is the best chance she got to win a Slam“ and they are right, to be honest.

Current form, head-to-head, the match-up, the recent and long-term form, the surface, the weather (expected showers and18-27 Celcius, which mean slower conditions) talk not only about a Halep win here, but also a straight-set HALEP win here! 2.26 @ Pinnacle for Halep -1.5 sets.

World Cup – No Surprises, No Risks

The FIFA World Cup 2018 will be the 21st FIFA World Cup, a quadrennial international football tournament contested by the men’s national teams of the member associations of FIFA. It is scheduled to take place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018.

Our International Football expert, Record (visit his Tipsters Page), will start a specialized package just for the World Cup. Take the World Cup subscription with Record, and if we don’t turn a profit after the competition, we will refund the cost of your subscription AND give you a FREE month with Record when the new football season starts.

Unknowns can turn a good bet bad, we know. Generally, when we bet, we want to be in possession of all the facts. The weather, team news, motivation, injuries, referees… are just a few of things we need to consider if we are to make money from betting on football. And let’s face it, money is the reason we are doing this.

It’s why the World Cup can be a tricky competition to master. Being a pro-gambler for some years, I make my living via betting on football on a daily basis. They say stick to what you know and as I watch lower league English football every day, know the players, the referees, the grounds, it makes sense to focus on just a small segment of the beautiful game.

This gives me an edge but that doesn’t mean we have to leap into the unknown for the upcoming festival of football in Russia. Luckily, as you can see in my bio, I have long made international football an area of focus. Sure, there are few more unknowns but crucially, the market is not as informed as it should be.

Take the last World Cup, where the layers constantly underestimated Algeria. This was despite the quality of the players, the excellence of manager, Vahid Halilhodžić (recently sacked by Japan), and their impressive form going into Brazil. As such, I was able to tip up their qualification to the knockout stages for the first time in their history and call that memorable 4-2 win over South Korea.

My betting focus is to understand as much as I can about all the teams in Russia – though admittedly Panama is difficult assignment!
It is research that pays. Take Morocco for instance. They are currently priced 500 + on the exchange. They are priced at 5s for qualification (less on the exchange interestingly) and they have a lot going for them.

This is a team that qualified from a difficult African group – including Ivory Coast, Gabon, and Mali. Not only did they qualify, they didn’t concede a goal.

The manager is Herve Renard – a wily old dog and one of the better managers in this tournament.

On the playing front, Hakim Ziyech of Ajax is the creative heart of the team in a 4-3-3 formation. Sofiane Boufal may be a known name in the UK, but he struggles to get on the team. Add in defenders, Hakimi of Real Madrid and Benatia of Juventus, it’s quickly apparent this is a squad with the potential to surprise.

And when we are parting with our hard-earned money, surprises are the last thing we want.

So, here’s the offer. Take a World Cup subscription with Record and if I don’t grow your bankroll, you get a 200% Money Back Guarantee! (we will refund the cost of your subscription AND give you a FREE month with Record when the new football season starts!)

The ultimate risk-free trial, with no strings attached and certainly no surprises.

Early Days, Learning all the time!

We are now a couple of months into our journey at and like yourselves, we are learning week by week. That motto should follow you all your life as we never stop learning, changing, developing as when we do our edge has gone.

My motivation for being involved is pretty simple, all my life I have been around the professional sport, high-level betting poker or edge finding but I am getting older and have been through so many betting accounts in family and friends names that it gets harder and harder to get on. That said, it never really stops me and I love nothing more than destroying bookmakers, after all, they get away with not taking bets from law-abiding citizens in what is meant to be a democracy.

Bookmakers are lazy, why you may ask? Truth is, whatever they say, they are only interested in problem gamblers and getting social gamblers onto house games where they control the edge. The Gambling Commission is a disgrace typically a bunch of civil servants who do nothing and only pay lip service. Rant over! This, however, works for us, punters, who know were the edge is, as they are always trying to attract new customers with incorrect prices.

As you know I, Craig29-147s, cover snooker and golf but with snooker seasons five weeks away I am going to talk a little about our golf models.
There are several excellent tipsters around but in truth, they are limited in understanding how a professional sportsman mind works. That is the edge I will give you over time, the insecurities, the expectations, the mental let down week on week, the list goes on and on…

This is a big reason for us offering both Outrightand Places models, some professionals are mentally comfortable with winning, but importantly many are not and never will be, that however does not mean they are not profitable, in actual fact the opposite can apply as bookmakers fraction off win market into place market price. This means that journeyman professionals with consistent statistics are often overpriced in top 5, top 10 and top 20.

The higher volume of turnover is achieved on the more fancied players whom we will rarely tip in place model at the high end of the market leaving market value for us.

Some professionals are habitual fast starters or poor finishers, why? The answer is simple: life is breed from learned behavior, this works brilliantly for us especially with the fast starters repeatedly having good first rounds and winning a market that has no personal pressure. Dead heat rules can hurt in this market thus we will never tip under 50/1 and rarely under 100/1 as this is not +EV.

This is not to say that some professionals don’t manage to swim against the tide, a sports psychologist can be a real long-term investment and help in changing learned behavior so I never try to pigeonhole player with the same identity, always being sensitive to changing dynamics.

Lots of things change like nappy factor which has been a profitable line over the years, players lose people close to them and this releases their shackles as “fear of losing”subsides. This even has a positive effect on proven winners.

Always, plenty to think about and I hope you’ve enjoyed first entry, future blogs will go into these issues in more detail with plenty more on top…