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Carballes v Krueger Match preview + free tip
If I had to choose one match from the 1st day of US Open it would be Carballes v Krueger, a match where I cannot understand the price. This match was tipped for our premium subscribers @ 2.33 from Pinnacle, with minimum odds of 1.90 (Via broker SportMarket), and now he is priced 2.13 at the same bookie- which gave our paying subscribers a nice money’s worth on this drop.
Why I can’t understand this pricing you might ask. First of all, the quality of the players is in Carballes’ favor. While Carballes is ranked #97 and has a highest ranking of #72, Krueger is ranked #267 and a highest ranking ever of #169. Both players have played over 40 matches in 2018 (Carballes 50 played, while Krueger 47) and both of them have won 23 of them. The fact that Carballes has won matches against Lorenzi, Jarry, Ramos, Marterer, Norrie, Fratangelo, Djere, Ruud, Garcia-Lopez or Pella shows us that he is a good player with decent results in 2018 (He has won Quito ATP too, on clay, but at altitude with very fast conditions). Best matches played by Krueger this year were those against Opelka, Basic, Bublik, Paire, Ramanathan, and the 3 played in the US Open qualifications (against Soeda, Kwiatkowski, and Hemery).
Let me talk about what would go wrong and why Krueger is shown with chances in this match before I will analyze why I think he has little chances of winning this.
Krueger plays mainly on hard courts, and mainly in North American venues. He has played 25 matches on hard courts in 2018 (won 14 of them) and 23 of those have been played in America or Canada (there was one challenger in Noumea and the Q1 in Australian Open). Carballes plays mainly on clay courts, with 42 played on clay from those 50 total matches in 2018. Carballes also played just about 10% of his professional matches on hard courts and the rest on clay. The fact that Krueger won the qualification matches here in New York has also a big impact on the price.
Now, things that won’t work for Krueger and should work in favor of Carballes.
Mitchel Krueger played only 8 matches on ATP level and won only 2 of them (both against a tanking or injured Benoit Paire). He lost to Ito, Kudla, Tursunov, Delpo, Krajinovic, and Herbert. This is the first best-of-5 sets match played by Krueger. Krueger is 49W-73L in his career in 3 setters (deciders) on all levels, which can only suggest that Krueger isn’t ready for the 3-out-of-5 matches. Krueger tried to get into the US Open main draw 5 prior times and managed 0 of them. This year is his first successful attempt to get to a Slam main-draw. Tursunov was ranked 800+ and hadn’t won a main level match in over 1 year when he beat Krueger last season (Tursunov had no stamina left, but still defeated Krueger).
Carballes has won 26 ATP matches and lost 33, while he lost all 3 matches played in best-of-5 (5 sets to Pavlasek in 2016, 4 sets to Paire this year and 3 sets in Wimbledon against Harrison). Carballes has a 97W-98L record in deciding sets on all levels.
Carballes played Winston Salem as preparation for US Open and he won against Pella (priced 4.89) and Ramos (priced 2.58), and also both in straight sets… then lost to Edmund 7-5 7-5 (priced 5.37).
The fact that Krueger is so unexperimented at ATP level, the fact that Carballes has the better stamina are huge pluses for the Spaniard. Fact that the expected weather shows a 32C in the shadow and very humid, will also favor Carballes (as he is used to hot weather and humidity, being from Spain).
The match-up between these two is in favor of the Spaniard, as Krueger has a mediocre (at most) backhand, while Carballes is very solid on this side. Carballes will push most of the times with the BH cross, long, while Krueger will hit a short and bouncy ball, where RCB can attack down the line. Fact is that Carballes has the better groundstrokes, while Krueger has the better serve. Carballes is also a good returner and US Open being a medium court speed (Arthur Ashe Stadium is quicker tho, but these won’t play on the CC), will make Carballes start more rallies and win more points by grinding out.
I really expect Carballes to win this clash in 4 or 5 sets and will say this because of Krueger. Krueger can peak for a set with his serve and frustrate RCB, but he cannot compete for a long time at that level. Carballes needs to start the match with his mentality and game-plan to grind out his opponent. If he does that he will win for sure.
Carballes to win @ 2.13 with 10 units
(from Pinnacle via broker SportMarket)
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