Carballes v Krueger Match preview + free tip #USOpen

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Carballes v Krueger Match preview + free tip

 

If I had to choose one match from the 1st day of US Open it would be Carballes v Krueger, a match where I cannot understand the price. This match was tipped for our premium subscribers @ 2.33 from Pinnacle, with minimum odds of 1.90 (Via broker SportMarket), and now he is priced 2.13 at the same bookie- which gave our paying subscribers a nice money’s worth on this drop.

Why I can’t understand this pricing you might ask. First of all, the quality of the players is in Carballes’ favor. While Carballes is ranked #97 and has a highest ranking of #72, Krueger is ranked #267 and a highest ranking ever of #169. Both players have played over 40 matches in 2018 (Carballes 50 played, while Krueger 47) and both of them have won 23 of them. The fact that Carballes has won matches against Lorenzi, Jarry, Ramos, Marterer, Norrie, Fratangelo, Djere, Ruud, Garcia-Lopez or Pella shows us that he is a good player with decent results in 2018 (He has won Quito ATP too, on clay, but at altitude with very fast conditions). Best matches played by Krueger this year were those against Opelka, Basic, Bublik, Paire, Ramanathan, and the 3 played in the US Open qualifications (against Soeda, Kwiatkowski, and Hemery).

Let me talk about what would go wrong and why Krueger is shown with chances in this match before I will analyze why I think he has little chances of winning this.
Krueger plays mainly on hard courts, and mainly in North American venues. He has played 25 matches on hard courts in 2018 (won 14 of them) and 23 of those have been played in America or Canada (there was one challenger in Noumea and the Q1 in Australian Open). Carballes plays mainly on clay courts, with 42 played on clay from those 50 total matches in 2018. Carballes also played just about 10% of his professional matches on hard courts and the rest on clay. The fact that Krueger won the qualification matches here in New York has also a big impact on the price.
Now, things that won’t work for Krueger and should work in favor of Carballes.

Mitchel Krueger played only 8 matches on ATP level and won only 2 of them (both against a tanking or injured Benoit Paire). He lost to Ito, Kudla, Tursunov, Delpo, Krajinovic, and Herbert. This is the first best-of-5 sets match played by Krueger. Krueger is 49W-73L in his career in 3 setters (deciders) on all levels, which can only suggest that Krueger isn’t ready for the 3-out-of-5 matches. Krueger tried to get into the US Open main draw 5 prior times and managed 0 of them. This year is his first successful attempt to get to a Slam main-draw. Tursunov was ranked 800+ and hadn’t won a main level match in over 1 year when he beat Krueger last season (Tursunov had no stamina left, but still defeated Krueger).

Carballes has won 26 ATP matches and lost 33, while he lost all 3 matches played in best-of-5 (5 sets to Pavlasek in 2016, 4 sets to Paire this year and 3 sets in Wimbledon against Harrison). Carballes has a 97W-98L record in deciding sets on all levels.

Carballes played Winston Salem as preparation for US Open and he won against Pella (priced 4.89) and Ramos (priced 2.58), and also both in straight sets… then lost to Edmund 7-5 7-5 (priced 5.37).
The fact that Krueger is so unexperimented at ATP level, the fact that Carballes has the better stamina are huge pluses for the Spaniard. Fact that the expected weather shows a 32C in the shadow and very humid, will also favor Carballes (as he is used to hot weather and humidity, being from Spain).

The match-up between these two is in favor of the Spaniard, as Krueger has a mediocre (at most) backhand, while Carballes is very solid on this side. Carballes will push most of the times with the BH cross, long, while Krueger will hit a short and bouncy ball, where RCB can attack down the line. Fact is that Carballes has the better groundstrokes, while Krueger has the better serve. Carballes is also a good returner and US Open being a medium court speed (Arthur Ashe Stadium is quicker tho, but these won’t play on the CC), will make Carballes start more rallies and win more points by grinding out.

I really expect Carballes to win this clash in 4 or 5 sets and will say this because of Krueger. Krueger can peak for a set with his serve and frustrate RCB, but he cannot compete for a long time at that level. Carballes needs to start the match with his mentality and game-plan to grind out his opponent. If he does that he will win for sure.

Carballes to win @ 2.13 with 10 units

(from Pinnacle via broker SportMarket)

 

 

 

If you don’t have an active Pinnacle account I can suggest trustworthy broker whom I use for some time now! Check out SportMarket and create an account: Link Here

You can read the SportMarket.com review by visiting the Blog-Post:

“No Pinnacle, IBC, Matchbook or SBO account? Don’t worry! There is SportMarket for all of these!”

Jo Jo 2.0

Overview 

The Kilmarnock born Joanne Calderwood makes her return to the UFC Octagon this Saturday for the first time since last year, but the Scottish native certainly has no octagon jitters as she’s referring herself to her fans as ‘Jo Jo 2.0’. With a recent step up in weight class after finding it hard to cut the extra pounds at strawweight she moves up to the flyweight division, The 31-year-old said: “I’m so much happier and more confident at this weight. My whole camp has been awesome.

“I’m healthy, I’m raring to go and I’m actually wondering how the hell I ever made strawweight.”

“It just feels like that I’ve made massive changes in my mindset and in my training this year.”

“Everything is completely different for me. This is the new version of me and I just felt like it was pretty cool to go with Jo Jo 2.0. I’m just running with it!”

Weight divisions and finding the right division seems to be a constant battle with quite a few fighters on the UFC roster and more times than not, when a fighter has less weight to cut and worry about they can fully focus on what a training camp should be about, and that is martial arts!  I love Jo Jo’s attitude heading into this fight, and if you know anybody from Scotland you’ll know how tough them sob’s can be. Joanne was the first ever professional female mixed martial artist, former Muay Thai champion and currently ranked #14 in the official UFC strawweight rankings.

Calderwood current fight camp has taken place at Syndicate MMA and she feels more confident than ever finding new partners and friendships to help her journey into the top-ranked fighters of the woman’s UFC flyweight division.

She said: “I love Las Vegas, I love the weather and I love the gym.”

“What drew me there was the UFC’s Performance Institute and then everything else has just came along with it.”

“One of my main changes I wanted to make was to have female training partners, and at Syndicate MMA they have five girls that are always there.”

“Coach John Wood is an awesome MMA coach.”

“Another change that I wanted to make was having someone that did everything.”

“I didn’t want a jiu-jitsu coach, I didn’t want a wrestling coach, I didn’t want a Muay Thai guy – I wanted someone that was the glue that put all those together.”

“That’s what I’ve got at Syndicate MMA. I’m really confident and happy with that set-up.”

Calderwood has found herself two new best buddies in UFC flyweights Jessica-Rose Clark and Roxanne Modafferi during her time at Syndicate MMA, and we know how much difference a friendship can make when it comes to progression in any walk of life.

Conclusion

I do expect Jo Jo to take the W here but seems as the price is so ugly, Jo Jo to win by decision @ 1.91 has great value in my opinion and we all know how much I love to value hunt. I could sit here and tell you Anders will win, Alves will win, Drew Dober will win and both women fights are going the distance but there is NO value in these type of bets when betting single plays. Enough rambling on from me, Tune in on Saturday live on BT Sport from 1am BST on Sunday, August 26, or catch Joanne’s fight on the Early Prelims exclusively on UFC Fight Pass from 11:30pm BST on Saturday night.

Joanne Calderwood Win By Decision @ 1.91 (Sportbet)

Stake : 1.5 units 

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His stats since he started with TipstersClub:

Total Profit 46.714 units
ROI 13.501%
Bets won 68/128 (53.125%)
Total Stake 346.000 units
Average Stake 2.703 units
Average Odds 2.055

 

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Golf 6 months in and a little advice about our bets!

Hopefully now as members grow you are all seeing some good results and how easy it is to TRUST our models.

The place model is very important to our long-term bankroll as it provides a low-risk steady yield currently running at 16% over 377 bets, in general, we concentrate on the top 20 market but there are times we go into the top 10 market and for those who are lucky to have Paddy power or Betfair sportsbook accounts top 30 or top 40 markets, sometimes also Unibet and 888sport offer top 40 markets. If however, you’ve had your account locked with Paddy Power or Betfair sportsbook no worry as just take best top 20 price as long as it is above our minimum recommended. Your ROI will actually climb in long run. As long as you’re not from a country who can’t have a Betfair exchange account, it’s very important, especially throughout Wednesday’s when golf markets mature as liquidity increases. Just this week we were getting double the recommended prices on a  handful of our golfers.

Our outright model continues to run ridiculously well with a 99.5% ROI over 300 plus bets, so it’s unlikely this will run better so important to keep grinding the place model week in week out.

  ROI Bets Won Profit
Places Model 15.92% 64/379 (16.9 %) +50.48 units
Outright Model 99.48%  22/315 (7 %) +141.16 units

When you look at these figures you will realize that by betting £10 per unit you would already be £1910.64 in profit and more importantly last week we gave our biggest bet out which was only 1 unit each way on Tom Gillis showing how affordable and simple our golf betting is for members bankrolls.

The graphs show the story even better:

Places Model

Outright Model

So you can have low-stress fun involvement with golf or stake up to what you feel comfortable either way winning is only ever a matter of time…..

Get the subscription by visiting Craig’s product page: Link here.
Read Craig’s bio, see his stats and see his reviews by visiting: Link here.

Young Boys vs Dinamo Zagreb Predictions, Free Tips & Banter

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Insight 

Newly crowned Swiss league champions Young Boys attempt to break through into the champions league for the first time ever this Wednesday night at the Stade de Suisse in Switzerland. Fearless, Goal Scoring, Fired up young boys have started the new Super League campaign how they ended it last season, with strong composed football not letting anybody break them with 4 games played and 4 wins.  Their counterparts Dinamo Zagreb are no slouches either with 3 wins and 1 draw to start there season in Croatia’s HNL division.

Dinamo has dominated the Croatian league for the past 13 years winning the title 12 times and successfully entering the Champions League on multiple occasions and are unbeaten in 16 UEFA Champions League qualifying matches overall heading into this so Young Boys will have a lot of experience to contend with. The reigning champions of Croatia have qualified on four of their latest six attempts, winning three times on each occasion, and a 2-0 victory away to Astana in the notoriously difficult environment of Kazakhstan earlier this month highlighted their current fine form.

As we know from International football, The Croatians are far from pushovers and put in the effort right until the final whistle, I do see a path to victory for the Swiss side but it will be one of there toughest opponents in recent times.

Some stats to feast on

  • Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in 16 away Champions League qualifiers.
  • This is the first ever competitive meeting between these clubs.
  • Young Boys matches last season in the Swiss League averaged 3.47 goals per game.
  • Young Boys have never previously played a Croatian team in European competition
  • Dinamo Zagreb won 5-0 in their only other UEFA match away to Swiss opposition
  • Young Boys have scored 2.8 goals per game on average this term.

Conclusion

Unbeaten in 16 Champions League qualifiers I can’t help but think the experience of the Croatian side is going to shine through in this match-up, whilst the Young Boys continue to improve and impress in the Swiss League, there form in European football is considerably poorer.  They’ve lost 9 of their last 11 Champions League qualifiers and have been beaten at this stage in each of the last two seasons, losing both legs of both ties. However, I do think the home advantage and current form of the Swiss side will see them bag at least one goal.

Prediction & Free tips

This week I’m feeling confident so I’m going to give you guys a treat with two free tips. I think the Croatians will leave with at least draw and Young Boys will leave with at least a goal. That being said, Dinamo Zagreb to win or draw and both teams to score sounds pretty juicy to me. If your an old man, you shouldn’t be looking at Young Boys too close anyway.

Dinamo Zagreb – Zagreb DOUBLE CHANCE (win or draw) @ 2.12  (888Sports/unibet you will find this lovely price)

Young Boys vs Dinamo Zagreb – BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.819  (Pinnacle via SportMarket.com)

1 Unit Stake Advised on both tips.

If you don’t have an active Pinnacle account I can suggest trustworthy broker whom I use for some time now! Check out SportMarket and create an account: Link Here

You can read the SportMarket.com review by visiting the Blog-Post: No Pinnacle, IBC, Matchbook or SBO account? Don’t worry! There is SportMarket for all of these!

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No Pinnacle, IBC, Matchbook or SBO account? Don’t worry! There is SportMarket for all of these!

We all know which bookies are the best in business and which you need to avoid, or at least need to trick to get money from their pockets.

Once you get to the level of betting where you constantly win you will find out that there are two kinds of bookies around:
1. Where one account is enough for the entire life… And that is the bookie that welcomes winners.
2. Where you need to create accounts once a month with different names because you won. These bookies can be called casual bookmakers and most of them are this kind.

This blog-post is meant to describe better the first category of bookies will include bookies and betting exchanges like Pinnacle, Betfair, Betdaq, GalaxyBet, IBC, ISN, Matchbook, SBO, and Singbet.
These are sites where you can win without the fear of getting limited or suspended because you won. These sites have good limits on the bets and most of the markets that you can find on regular bookmakers.

The main problem with these bookies is that they don’t allow new customers from different countries. Gambling, being a universal activity, many people from many countries want to bet and want to win. Of course, they want to bet where the bookmaker juice is low (their commision on each bet). The closer you get to a 2.00 – 2.00 price combination in a coin flip, the better you are settled for the long run. You might ask now, what is to be done to create these accounts with these bookies if they don’t allow customers from your country.

Here comes into play the sports broker!

CREATE AN ACCOUNT WITH SPORTMARKET BY VISITING SportMarket.com

I will present to you the advantages of using a broker in the long run and assist you through the account creation. SportMarket will create anonymous accounts for you at following bookies/exchanges: Pinnacle, Betfair, Betdaq, GalaxyBet, IBC, ISN, Matchbook, SBO, and Singbet. (You will be able to use most of them, but there will be some missing because of country restrictions)

First of all access SportMarket.com and you will see the following page. The site is slick and looks very good, as it was newly upgraded.

After you hit register button you will get to the account creation page where you need to add the following information from the print-screen:

You can create an account with SportMarket from countries like (stating just the biggest): Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Bosnia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Rep., Denmark, Egypt, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Malaysia, Malta, Mexico, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UAE.

As you see in this list there are a few countries missing, the biggest of them are England and the USA. England (But still can use Ireland) has a no-way policy for Pinnacle accounts, while in the USA there is still a problem with gambling overall.

You can create the account and use as currency: USD, GBP, EUR, SEK, and NOK.

After you hit register you will have to write the Validation Code in the box and hit you agree with everything in the T&Cs (Please do read them, as they have a compact version there). After you hit “Create Account” you will get an email with further information about the broker.

Now you have a new SportMarket account. This might be a bit confusing at the beginning, but it is easy to understand and work within the end.

There are two types of accounts:
– Main SportMarket account (which we created) and where you will see the balances at first
– PRO SportMarket account where you have to move your money once you deposit… Pro will be the place you bet in the end.

Next step for the use of the account is depositing money. You can use Bankwire, Skrill, Neteller, EcoPayz, and Bitcoin. I have used so far Skrill and Bitcoin and it is as easy at it can get.

The minimum deposit amount is €250. Please note that we will charge a 1% fee for deposits over €1,000 and a €10 deposit fee for all deposits under €1,000.

After you deposit, you need to create a pro account by hitting the “Create PRO Account” button at the right top of the page.

After you created that account (note that the password may be different for those two accounts), you need to go to My Account – Transfer and there you can move the money from the Main account to the PRO account.

Now you are set up with the account!

There is another thing you need to do, and that is the KYC procedure where you send a copy of your ID and proof of address, so they won’t get in trouble by allowing “illegal” gamblers to bet with them (from illegal countries). You will get that information when necessary via mail.

As you get the PRO SportMarket account the page is going to look like this:

You can bet on following sports with SportMarket:

Now comes the best part to compare some prices and see some limits available.

I will take a football and a tennis example and compare the prices to your regular bookies.

This is the Premier League page (at the time of writing) and I will analyze the Newcastle v Chelsea match:

Clicking on any odds, for example, the ML on Chelsea you will see all available prices and liquidities for those prices:

As you already knew, Pinnacle often offers the best prices, but now you can also take the bet at Betdaq. The best thing is that no matter which price you choose, SportMarket will bet on the highest available price that has the liquidity you require or will split the amount in more individual bets that have at least the price you selected!

Another fun fact is that you can take 792 euro from Pinnacle with 1.689 and after that Pinnacle will add more liquidity (but sometimes will remove little the price after a larger bet).

Now looking at the Tennis from Winston Salem and at the Struff v Jarry match. You can see that the prices are good and the liquidity is OK (liquidities get even higher on in-play betting). The fact that you can bet several times can make your stake as big as you want in the end.

All these been said, we can acknowledge that using a sports broker that we can trust has a lot of benefits:
– Good prices
– High liquidity
– Choosing from unavailable bookies (location wise)
– Secure
– You don’t need to declare any incomes as SportMarket doesn’t talk to the authorities about your betting
– Safe to use from everywhere in the world (VPN required in the forbidden countries)
– Nice and easy to use mobile site
– Many deposit options
– Choosing the best price automatically from all available ones on the market
– User (Buddy) transfers
– Live Chat (that actually works)
– Very quick and helpful email support

Some might find the following as negatives:
– Minimum deposit is €250 and a 1% (minimum €10) deposit fee
– KYC required
– 1% withdraw fee (minimum €10)
– Minimum withdrawal is €250 and a 1% (minimum €10) withdrawal fee
– Smaller limits than the original bookies (Half limits than an authentic Pinnacle account… But you can bet several times tho)

CREATE AN ACCOUNT WITH SPORTMARKET BY VISITING SportMarket.com

Here Deposit, withdrawals, transfers & fees

I hope I did get all the required information in this blog post and I hope you will enjoy betting with SportMarket in the future. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to contact us! For the future, we will be able to generate some kind of offers for all users that registered from TipstersClub!

Enjoy SportMarket!

Kind regards,
TipstersClub

New Haven Outright preview. Free Betting Tip.

See the service description, read my reviews and see the prices by visiting the product page: Ardeal Service Page
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Connecticut Open PREVIEW

I am so excited about this tournament in New Haven and there is only one reason only: betting opportunity. I am always very eager to bet in the pre-Slam and post-Masters tournaments as there is a lot of info about fatigue and injury concerns, but also about the past results during such periods in the schedule.

Connecticut Open will be held in New Haven (Connecticut, United States) between 19th August and 25th, and has a huge history behind, featuring its 50th edition in 2018 and was founded 70 years ago, in 1948. The venue for this tournament is Connecticut Tennis Center at Yale (45 Yale Avenue, New Haven, CT 06515). The total financial commitment is $799,000. The surface they play on in New Haven is “SportMaster Sport Surfaces/Outdoors”, which is similar to Irving Challenger and Washington Open.

Following graph will show you the Prize money and ranking points that each round will settle.

PAST RESULTS

Looking at the past results we see good players winning this tournament in the past years: Wozniacki 2008-2011 (4 titles), Kvitova 2012, 2014-2015 (3 titles), Halep 2013, Radwanska 2016 and Gavrilova 2017. Fact is that the tournament had high seeds, but in the past 10 years, we saw only 3x 1st seeds winning this tournament (Wozniacki in 2010 and 2011 and Radwanska in 2016). One can guess, despite a possible 470 points can be won for this title, that top-players won’t do their best considering that the tournament is held 2 weeks before the US Open. Last year we saw an unseeded player winning here, Daria Gavrilova, winning against Krystina Pliskova, Babos, Flipkens, Radwanska, and Cibulkova in the final. Only two of those matches were won by Gavrilova as an underdog (SF and F).

WEATHER

The weather will be ok for tennis, having 20% chances of precipitation on Monday and 90% on Wednesday. The other days will be safe from rain and thunderstorms. Wind speeds will be between 8 km/h and 16 km/h during the week.

TOP CONTENDERS

Simona Halep is the top #1 seed, but one can be confident that she won’t do any damage this week as she comes after two hard weeks of tennis, winning Montreal Masters and losing in the Cincinnati Masters final to Bertens (Halep missed championship point in the 2nd set tie-break).

The second seed, Caroline Garcia, has a decent year so far with 27 wins and 16 losses but has no finals played in 2018. Her recent results in New Haven are mediocre, losing to Flipkens in R16, Wozniacki in QF and Strycova in R16 in the past 3 years.

Pliskova had a decent year so far too, but nothing special for her, winning only one tournament, on clay in Stuttgart (indoor). Her hard court results in 2018 are mediocre for a top-10 player, and maybe that’s why she got to #8 in the rankings. She lost matches to Sabalenka, Bertens (got crushed 6-2 6-2), Azarenka, Osaka, Kerber, Halep, Bellis, and Svitolina. She managed to win 0 matches as an underdog on hard courts this year. Pliskova’s best result in New Haven is a QF in 2015 lost to Tsurenko (1.48 favorite back then).
Kvitova looks like being the best-rated player in the draw, as she won this tournament 3 times in the past 6 years. Kvitova has also 42 wins and just 10 losses in 2018, while on hard she is decent, with 14 wins and 6 losses. Those losses came to Giorgi and Petkovic (in January), Anisimova and Ostapenko (in March, after winning Doha title), and 2x Bertens (in August during Montreal and Cincinnati).

Gavrilova, the reigning champion, has had a mediocre 2018 so far and managed to win 10 matches on hard and lose 9 of them. Nothing special from her side since Sydney in January. She might be motivated to defend her title, but her form is below-par. Her win over Begu in the first round was very good, winning 6-2 6-2, and that can boost her moral and make her a contender during this week.

Bertens, the newest Cincinnati Masters winner, came to New Haven from Cincinnati (4 hours flight), but we surely can assume that she isn’t going to be at her best after her first Masters Tournament won on Sunday. I doubt she will make any statement here, keeping her fresh for the US Open. The price on her 1st match opponent, Kontaveit, is dropping like crazy too.

The last contender in this draw, which I also consider the most valuable to back outright, is the German Julia Goerges. Her year was good and has won a title in Auckland, reached final in Charleston and SF in Wimbledon. Her past results in New Haven are almost inexistent (lost an R16 match against Stephens back in 2013). The fact is that she managed to get to a final in Washington last year (similar surface) where she lost to a red-hot Makarova.

THE DRAW

As said before, we do have high ranked girls in the draw, but we can assume that not all of them will deliver in these conditions. Top-8 seeded players taking part are Halep (#1), Garcia (#6), Kvitova (#5), Pliskova (#8), Goerges (#9), Bertens (#13), Strycova (#22- LOST in 1st round), and Gavrilova (#24).

Halep sits on the top part of the draw along Giorgi, Bogdan, Sabalenka, Stosur, Gavrilova, PLiskova, Makarova, Rybarikova, and Goerges as top contenders.
Garcia sits on the bottom part of the draw along Mladenovic, Sasnovich, Puig, BBacsinszky, Kontaveit, Bertens, Kvitova, Radwanska, Sakkari, Konta, and Suarez Navarro as top contenders. We can definitely say that the bottom part looks the harder one.

Looking at the draw we might see that Kvitova has a hard way ahead, starting her journey against Radwanska, then she might get the in-form Sakkari, after that fighter Konta and for the semi-final, she might Garcia or Kontaveit. In the final she might play Halep, Gavrilova, or Goerges.

Halep might lose in the first or second round, so I would definitely count her out, as I would do also with Bertens.
Pliskova starts the tournament against a lefty player, Makarova, a player she lost to 3 times in the past 3 years, and then will get Rybarikova (a player she has a 0-2 negative H2H to). Would count Pliskova out too, considering her road to follow.

Gavrilova has a nice and winnable road ahead, facing Stosur or Sabalenka in the 2nd round, then Halep or Bogdan/Giorgi to reach the SF.

My main focus will be on Goerges, who won the first round easily against Cibulkova (finalist last year), and will face Yastremska or Collins in the 2nd round (winnable match either way). After that, she might get Makarova (har nut to crack, but winnable too) or Rybarikova (1-1 H2H). The semi-final then will be really winnable for the German in facing fatigued Halep or Gavrilova (1-1 H2H). The potential final will be the hardest match for sure but raising her level up for the first rounds and not spending too much time on the court will make her a top contender, no matter the finalist. She has negative H2H against both Kvitova (6-1) and Garcia (2-0), but I guess the two will have a harder path to the final and will be more exhausted.

Goerges is the top server on tour, with 352 aces in 48 matches, winning 74.1% 1st serves and 49.1% 2nd serves (total of 63.6% service points won and 79.7% service games won). She has the top service game % won in the tour (5 matches minimum played). Goerges has won 39.8% of return games in 2018. A combined rating would be 119,5, which makes her a top player!
Kvitova has won 45.2% of return games and 75.8% of the service games, which makes her combined stats really good, at 121.
Garcia has won 75.3% service games and 40,6% service games, and a combined 115.9 score.
Considering all factors, like draw, fatigue, past results and direct match-ups, I have come to the conclusion that the best player to back on the outright market is Julia Goerges.

8 units on Julia Goerges to win New Haven @ 15.00 with bet365 (Comparison link here)

See the service description, read my reviews and see the prices by visiting the product page: Ardeal Service Page
Read my bio, see my stats and my past bets by visiting: Ardeal Tipster Page

Despite having a bad couple of months, August has been kind to us, despite having over 10 players that have lost from match-points up!

The Graph for August looks like this:

The stats for August are as follow:

Kind regards,
Ardeal

Leicester face Wolves in midlands derby you cannot miss !

Matchday 2 of the Premier League season is upon us and I’m more interested in the Midlands derby between Leicester and Wolves than any other game on the schedule this week. Leicester will be looking for the 3 points at home after a disappointing loss to Manchester Utd last weekend, despite having more possession and shots on goal the Midlands side couldn’t find the back of the net until Vardy came on the pitch and started a party. Leicester fans minds will be at ease this week, “Jamie is training well this week with his team-mates and he is available,” said Foxes manager Claude Puel. “He has a good chance to start.”

Newly promoted and quite possibly the best team from the new Premier League sides Wolverhampton Wanderers will be looking to continue there ultra impressive away record from last season. The question still remains, are they fit for this division? We’re going to find out tomorrow in there first away game of the season. Coming off a 2-2 draw against Everton I expect Wolves confidence to be fairly high, especially with possible starts from the new transfer signings Adama Traore and Leander Dendoncker. The Belgium midfielder who helped take out the international English side in this year’s world cup will see two familiar faces in Jamie Vardy and Harry Maguire, will this spark some revenge for the Leicester City internationals?

Likely Lineups

Leicester (4-2-3-1): Schmeichel; Amartey, Morgan, Maguire, Chilwell; Silva, Ndidi; Pereira, Maddison, Gray; Vardy.

Wolves (3-4-3): Patricio; Bennett, Coady, Boly; Doherty, Moutinho, Neves, Otto; Costa, Jimenez, Jota. Subs: Ruddy, Saiss, Dendoncker, Vinagre, Gibbs-White, Traore, Bonatini.

Form

Leicester (including pre-season) LWDLD

Aug 10, 1-2 v Man United (a)

Aug 4, 2-1 v Lille (a)

Aug 1, 1-1 v Valencia (h)

July 28, 1-2 v Udinese (n)

July 25, 0-0 v Akhisarspor (n)

Wolves (including pre-season) DWLDD

Aug 11, 2-2 v Everton (h)

Aug 4, 2-1 v Villarreal (h)

July 28, 1-2 v Derby (a)

July 25, 0-0 v Stoke (a)

July 22, 0-0 v Real Betis (n) (45-min match)

Goals Goals Goals 

With Vardy most likely starting for Leicester and Raul Jimenez at the opposite end of the strike-force for Wolves I cannot see this game being shy on the goal sheet. Wolves defense is still questionable and both sides love a counter-attacking style of play. For me, this spells goals. Which brings me onto this week’s free tip, Both teams to score.

Free tip

Leicester vs Wolves / Both Teams To Score @ 1.87 with Pinnacle via SportMarket
Stake : 2 units

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Nick Kyrgios v Juan Martin del Potro Preview + Betting Tip #CincyTennis #CincinnatiMasters

Today’s bet of the day is the round-of-16 clash between ATP “Bad-Boy”, Australian Nick Kyrgios, and the “Gentle Giant of Tandil”, Argentine Juan Martin Del Potro. At first sight, this might not be my usual bet as I bet most of the times underdog bets, but to be honest, I see it as a banker.

This clash is the battle of two generations, #NextGen and Big-4 Generation, but also can be called a battle of two mentalities, as different as possible mentalities. As said in the other preview about Kyrgios, he has been called the “New Star of ATP” and the “Most talented player since Federer”, but also despite his repetitive f*ck-ups “Good for tennis” or “The only Character of tennis”, while JMDP was the “silent” one that produces big shocks, a player loved by every tennis fan. Nick Kyrgios is 1.93 m (6 ft 4 in) and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand, as Del Potro is 1.98 m (6 ft 6 in) and plays and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand too.

Careers under dissection.

As a short debrief of Kyrgios’ career… Kyrgios has won 4 ATP tournaments, but nothing special (only one Masters final, Cincinnati 2017, and 2x QFs in Slams back in 2014 and 2015). Kyrgios won, strangely, 9 matches against top-5 players and lost just 13. He won matches against Dimitrov, Zverev, Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, and Wawrinka. He is 216W-114L in his career and 125W-66L on hard courts. This year he struggled big time with injuries, physically, but I would say also mentally (“strange year on a personal level”, called by himself). Still, he has a 22W-9L record in 2018 and a 12W-4L on hard courts this year. Most notable results this year would be Brisbane winner (back in January), R16 of Australian Open, and SF of Queen’s Club.

Del Potro, on the other hand, had a tremendous year so far, reaching his all-time high ranking of #3 in the world, having this year a 37W-9L record, and on hard courts 25W-5L. As a short debrief of his career we can mention that he has played 33 ATP finals and won 22 titles, from those 1 Slam win in US Open 2009 and 1 Masters Tournament, in Indian Wells 2018. Both of the finals played in these high rated tournaments he defeated Roger Federer, and both times the Swiss was ranked #1 in the world at the time of play.
His record vs. top-20 players in the past 52 weeks is 12W-11L (He lost 3x Nadal, 2x Federer, 2x Isner, 1x Goffin, 1x Dimitrov, 1x Fognini, 1x Berdych).

As styles of play stand…

Kyrgios claims to not fear any opponent and says he always plays aggressively against everyone. Kyrgios’s main strength could be considered his serve; usually reaching higher or equal accuracy percentages of 75%, but also is known for hitting through the second serve to speed 200+ km/h (as a gamble), surprising everybody at times. Nonetheless, he also has a tremendous and blasting forehand as well as a very consistent and dangerous backhand. Both of these ground strokes provoke damages to opponents, while he is not afraid to use the backhand down the line. Adding to his skills are an effective slice and an efficient net game, and is known to love a doubles’ match once in a while too. His best surfaces considering his playing style are grass and fast hard-courts. He doesn’t have a steady coach but has many training sessions with Lleyton Hewitt, while his brother Chris is following him around the circuit all year long keeping an eye on his body.

Del Potro is an offensive baseliner with a very deep and powerful serve. His ground-strokes couldn’t be more different, as his forehand has huge power (top-3 forehand in the game for sure), and hits it flat, while the backhand (since the left arm wrist surgery) is more cautiously used as 50% of the times as slice backhand. Despite del Potro admitting that relying on slices is “not my game”, the shot has been effective in moving his opponents out of position and slowing down rallies enough to allow him to set up powerful offensive shots with his forehand. Movement wise he is a good mover considering his stature. Del Potro is trained by Sebastian Prieto

Match-up analysis

These two players have never met before, surprisingly, and we have to guess sort-of how these will play against each other. Del Potro’s record against 1,93m tall players and higher is good, having won 6 matches and lost 3 in the past year, while his career record against this kind of players is 18 wins and 10 losses. Kyrgios’ record against the same sample of players is 18 wins and 20 losses, career-based, while in the past year he lost 4 matches and won just the 1. The players in this sample are Zverev, Raonic, Karlovic, Berdych, Isner, Del Potro, Kyrgios Cilic, and Anderson.

Considering both having the serve a huge weapon we have to expect at least a tie-break and looking over the tie-break results would be a good thing to do. Kyrgios lost all 3 tiebreaks against tall players in the past year (2x Cilic and 1xZverev), while Delpo won 3 and lost 1 tie-break (won against Zverev, Cilic, and Isner and lost to Isner).

Kyrgios held 91% of times in 2018 and broke 15% (in his 369 service games and 365 return games), while Delpo won 87% of his service games (572 played) and 25% of the return games (568). A total combined value would be 104 for Kyrgios and 112 for Delpo. In the past year, Delpo won 20 matches (74%) where he had to play a tie-break, while Kyrgios won only 11 matches (58%) in these cases.

Cincinnati 2018

Kyrgios managed to win both matches he played so far here, and both in 3 sets. The first match against Kudla he has won 6(2)-7, 7-5, 7-6(9), saving a match point and also winning fewer points than the opponent (7 points less). The match against Coric was a spot on analysis from my side, as it was a 1st set tie-break involved, Kyrgios won 7-6(1), 0-6, 6-3 and again winning fewer points than the opponent (2 points less). His serving got him out of trouble in both matches, serving 39 aces against Kudla and 16 aces against Coric and winning 88% of the 1st serve points against Kudla and against Coric 78% in the 1st set and 84% in the 3rd set (have removed the 2nd set bagel as he was tanking). Kyrgios spent 3h 51m on the court during these two matches.

Del Potro had a BYE in the 1st round and has only faced Chung in the second round, where he won 6-2, 6-3. Del Potro served 9 aces and 4 DFs, and have 10 BPs on Chung’s serve (converting 5 of them), while was broken 2 times by the Korean player (out of 5 chances). Delpo stayed 1h 21m on the court during his win.

Final word.

Considering all these facts and stats, the match-up, the weather (which will be 23-28 °C and showers announced… This will make the ball travel slower and the surface slower) that will favor Delpo, the injury concerns on Kyrgios side (had a heavily taped knee during the matches against Kudla and Coric), I guess there is only one player that could battle this out as a winner, which I am sure will be Del Potro. I know that Kyrgios has to defend “a couple of points” from his last year’s run to the final, and he won’t tank necessarily… but we have seen the set against Coric where he got bageled. Del Potro looked very sharp against Chung, he is more fit these weeks, he played less tennis this week and also the match-up looks good. The only scenario I can imagine with Kyrgios winning this match would be 7-6 7-6, but as the stats show, Delpo is the better player in these tight matches too.

Full-stake on Delpo to win @ 1.53 from Pinnacle!
(I would back the match at a 1-set rule bookie, like Pinnacle, Unibet, 888, Betfair, or Bwin as Kyrgios is the player to retire constantly)

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Debrief of a losing day. Kyrgios v Coric #Cincinnati Free Tip + Betting preview

After a day that could have gone in a huge profit, I find myself again in the losing position somehow- as yesterday came with a -21,89 units loss. Looking over the bets, as a debrief, I find myself wondering what went wrong and as a first part of the blog-post, I will analyze post-matches those bets.

The day started excellently with the Popyrin bet of 9 units @ 2.75 that won in two straightforward sets. After that, we had two losses, one of 10 units in Mager (who tanked inexplicably in Italy) against a player who isn’t suited to clay and that has played few matches in 2018 too. The second loss of the day came when Nedelko lost the match despite having 2 match points on return in the 3rd set. In the end, he lost a 3rd set tie-break. He was tipped @ 4.50 and with a 5 units total stake.

Next bet came on Hassan to win @ 2.42, staking 8 units. This one was rather strange from the beginning with Hassan losing the first set 6-0 despite having break-points in 2 return games. From the second set, he started playing better and won the match rather comfortable if we ignore that mistake of set 1. Lajovic was tipped @ 4.60 with 5 units against Raonic, and despite the drop in the odds for Dusan… he had no chance in the end as Raonic was winning almost every point on return and missing nearly 0 chances on return. This was the first fail-bet of the day (considering results).
Ofner and Brown were advised to get over the 21.5 games margin (8 units stake @ 1.83) and they did, again, rather comfortably getting into a final set tie-break. The next bet was on Medvedev to win with 5 units, which lost in the end easily (2nd fail-bet of the day).

Kudla to win @ 3.50 with 5 units was one of the most frustrating losses of the day as he won the first set 7-6 then had one BP at 4-4 *30-40 and 2 consecutive straight break-points at 5-5 *15-40, just to miss them and lose the set 7-5. In the 3rd Kudla missed again a BP in game 1 and then they went straight to a final set tie-break… Only mini-break at the start was Kyrgios hitting a +150 km/h return forehand. The serves were flying and aces after aces were hit. Kudla saved 2 match points while serving, easily and then Kyrgios hit a 2nd serve on 3rd match point… Kudla won the rally. Kudla got to the 8-7* up in the tie-break, but Kyrgios had other plans, hitting a 138 mph second serve ace on match point and another +135 mph ace at 8-8. Kudla lost the set eventually 11-9… another final set tiebreak loss, another MP missed loss.

Khachanov v Ramos was almost exactly as I expected it to be, with 8 units bet (over 21.5 games @ 1.90) and 3 units (over 2.5 sets @ 3.00) bets won and a 4 unit bet lost (1st set tie-break).

After this bet, the bad run began… Kohlschreiber faced BPs in one game in set 1 and managed to get broken by Copil, so the 1st set tie-break bet was lost. Fucsovics and Hurkacz 1st set tie-break bet @ 4.33 (6 units) lost at *4-5 with Fucs serving (to this point of the set neither went to deuce on serve)… 1.50 in-play lost. Tsitsipas, tipped @ 2.50 with 8 units, followed the horrible performance when he managed to miss consecutive 3 set points on the return just to get broken the next service game (first service game where he faced BP too). In the second he started with a 2-0 lead just to lose the set 6-3 in the end. Maybe the fatigue got to him, but I am sure the 3 set points missed got the best out of him. Another hard-to-digest loss was the Escobedo v Evans bet of over 22.5 games @ 1.97 (8 units), where Escobedo was down 4-6 4-1 (up in the second) just to lose 4-6 4-6 and missing a 5-4 lead point on serve… Another 1.10 in-play bet lost. Peliwo was a fail-bet in the end, despite having several chances to get in the match, while Bemelmans performed exactly as I expected him, winning @ 3.36 (6 units bet). Edmund breaking himself at 5-4* and serving (hit a double fault at 30-30 in this game) and the 1st set tie-break et @ 4.00 gets crushed again from 1.44 in-play.

After taking all matches under verification, knowing the results… I can say that there were just a few bets that can be called “fail-bets” and those were small stakes too. The others were just heartbreaking loses that should have/could have won. This is not a blog post to moan about results, but just to analyze the stats and the day’s results… which I do every day.

Now getting to the bet of the day, which I will analyze for you guys.

My pick for the second round of Cincinnati will be the match between #18 ranked Australian and #21 ranked Croat, Borna Coric.

It is a rather strange thing to have two almost top-20 players meet in the second round of a Masters event, but it is a good eye catcher for sure. Both of them are youngish and both have them had been called “the new star” in tennis for a few years now. Neither of them has risen up to their potential so far and along some good top-5 wins I cannot say many good things have happened. Kyrgios has won 4 ATP tournaments, but nothing special (only one Masters final and 2x QFs in Slams back in 2014 and 2015). Kyrgios won, strangely, 9 matches against top-5 players and lost just 13. He won matches against Dimitrov, Zverev, Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, and Wawrinka. Coric won 2 ATP titles (biggest this year in Halle against Federer) and lost another two finals… But nothing special tho. His Slam results are mediocre at most with 4x 3rd round losses as best results. His stats vs. top-5 players are OKish with 6 wins and 13 losses (wins over Federer, Zverev, Murray, and Nadal).
Both players are extremely talented and both of them have been #1 juniors in the world. Coric won the boy’s US Open in 2013, while Kyrgios won the boy’s Australian Open in 2013.

Nick Kyrgios is 1.93 m (6 ft 4 in) and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand, as Borna Coric is 1.85 m (6 ft 1 in) and plays and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand too.

As styles of play stand… Kyrgios claims to not fear any opponent and says he always plays aggressively against everyone. Kyrgios’s main strength could be considered his serve; usually reaching higher or equal accuracy percentages of 75%, but also is known for hitting through the second serve to speed 200+ km/h. Nonetheless, he also has a tremendous and blasting forehand as well as a very consistent and dangerous backhand. Both of these ground strokes provoke damages to opponents, while he is not afraid to use the backhand down the line. Adding to his skills are an effective slice and an efficient net game, and is known to love a doubles’ match once in a while too. His best surfaces considering his playing style are grass and fast hard-courts. He doesn’t have a steady coach but has many training sessions with Lleyton Hewitt, while his brother Chris is following him around the circuit all year long keeping an eye on his body.

Coric, on the other hand, is a defensive baseliner. He is solid from both the forehand and backhand wing and moves well laterally on the court. His style of play lends itself to having long rallies and wearing down his opponent from the baseline, but also getting to the net when his strokes were attacking and dangerous enough. Due to the fact that he’s born left-handed (fact is not known by most) but plays on his right hand, the strengths in his game are in his movement and his two-handed backhand, which can be called a top-10 backhand in the circuit. In addition to these qualities, he also possesses a strong and precise serve, which enables him to win a lot of easy points and rush to the net to close the points with the over-head or easy volley. He is currently coached by Kristijan Schneider and Riccardo Piatti (a huge coach, which improved the game of well-known tennis-players like Djokovic, Raonic, Ljubicic, and Gasquet).

The two have met twice and both times in 2016 (once on clay in Estoril and once on hard courts in Cincinnati). Looking into the Cincinnati match we can see the match was rather serve-oriented. The first set got to a tie-break with no break of serves and having only 4 break-points the entire set (3 saved by Coric and 1 saved by Kyrgios). The second set was won by Kyrgios 6-4, converting the only BP of the set. The 3rd set wen rather strangely, in fact, having Coric save a break-point at 2-2 and Kyrgios begin broken 3-4 down which gave Coric a chance to serve for the match. Coric was broken to love and they went to a tie-break again (Coric saved another BP at 5-5). The tie-break was a roller-coaster as both of them had one match point each, Kyrgios missing his first and Coric converting on return. Tie-break ended up 8-6 in favor of Coric. In this clash, Coric served 16 aces, while Kyrgios 24. Coric won 82% of 1st serves and 50% of 2nd serves, while NK won 79% of 1st serves and 41% of 2nd serves- which make Coric the fair winner of the fight. Kyrgios was priced 1.14 in that clash and Coric 5.50, which might show the different path of both this year. Coric being priced now 1.50 and Kyrgios 2.50.

I would guess that the match will go the same way this time again with very short rallies and a lot of aces. Kyrgios served 39 aces and 10 double faults in the match won against Kudla (won 6-7 7-5 7-6(9)). He also won 88% of 1st serves and 54% of 2nd serves. Coric, on the other hand, had an easier match against Medvedev. He hit 4 aces and 0 double faults and won 85% of 1st serves and 80% of 2nd serves. The match should be won in the end by the fitter player, which is Coric, but I am sure Kyrgios with his aggressive and over-confident style will hold serve rather comfortable for the almost entire match. His 2nd serve is a veritable weapon and we will see Kyrgios risking more on it because of Coric’s qualities as a returner.

The tip for this match was sent earlier to our premium subscribers as “1st set tie-break” which was available at 4.50 (8 units) with PaddyPower and Betfair Sportsbook, with a minimum price of 3.00.

As a free tip, we advise him now at 4.20 at same bookies (Comparison Link here) or second bets 3.40 from bet365 (Comparison Link here) with 8 units (premium users shouldn’t follow again).

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Jack Lisowski v Mark Williams #FreeTip #TipstersClub by Craig29-147s

This is a write-up to let you know more details to my thoughts and just to reassure that it’s not a man crush thing with all the tips on Jack Lisowski these opening weeks.
Long-term, Lisowski times the ball way better than his peers. Strange thing to say, but, I know some of you understand the effortless way Federer and Mcllroy win at times, it all comes down to inherent class at the highest level of the sport in hand-to-eye coordination games. Yes- all the players have it to greater or lesser degrees but some just have it!!!

Yesterday I put up Lisowski to beat Wilson at -1.5 believing, that despite a positive h2h and being in better form, he would need to win without a deciding frame against probably the 2nd hardest match player in the game currently. Given last match these two played Wilson won 6-5 after trailing 4-0 , then today Wilson wins opening frame after needing multiple snookers and swiftly went on to lead 3-0 at which point no way can you find a way back for Lisowski, so to see him come back and lay any ghosts in his mind immediately to rest, was, I’m hoping, a breakout win despite us losing a few pennies.

For many years, good judges have thought he times the ball like the very best and actually cues the ball like Ronnie, but what we know is he has the ability to blow opponents away in a blink of the eye; which is a real sign of class.

Tomorrow I’m happy to take him v reigning world champion at 6/4, Mark Williams, with Spreadex, as a *FREETIP* (Link here). No matter the result if he continues the season with the ease he finished last and way he’s started this- winning matches day in, day out taking little out of himself then the world is his oyster. He eneded the year the 2017/2018 season with a Shanghai Masters Semi-Final and started the new season with a final (lost to Neil Robertson) in Riga Masters.

More information about Jack Lisowski

Regular readers of the Gloucester Citizen may remember that Lisowski suffered with Hodgkin’s lymphoma at the age of 16. Hodgkin’s lymphoma is cancer that develops from cells in the lymphatic system. Lisowski found out he had the disease after getting a lump on his neck checked out. He recovered from the illness and since then has done a lot of work with the Teenage Cancer Trust.

As a youngster, he was trained by Gloucester pro Nick Pearce, and turned pro in 2010. He managed his first century break at age 11 (Compared to Ronnie aged 10 Link here).

His current ranking is 24, highest ranking of 20 and has a total of £421,996 in career winnings. He managed to hit the 147 break once in 2012 UK Championship (qualifying) and 121 century breaks.

Lisowski married his American girlfriend, Jamie Livingston, in Cheltenham, England, on 23 February 2015.

During an interview with Eurosport’s commentator Przemek Kruk, Lisowski was asked about the origins of his surname, he replied: “Obviously living in England and having the surname ‘Lisowski’ makes me stand out as it’s definitely not an English name. People often struggle to pronounce it and it’s usually a good conversation starter. My granddad was Ukrainian, although I’m regularly told that it’s a Polish name. One day I definitely want to look into it and find out for sure where some of my roots lie.”

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