“WTA Monterrey Outright bets and Draw Analysis.” by Ardeal

Monterrey tournament is ongoing and I’m trying to make it as short as possible so as many as you guys will be able to back my outright/futures picks. The tournament is held in the city of Monterrey (540m altitude), Mexico, on hard courts and has featured a 32-player draw. The 2018 tournament winner was Spain’s Garbine Muguruza, who defeated Babos in the final.

Top remaining seeds in Monterrey are as follows: #5 Kerber (1), #19 Muguruza (2), #33 Pavlyuchenkova (3), #67 Azarenka (5), #58 Flipkens (6), #66 Mladenovic (7) and #71 Rybarikova (8). The only seed that lost so far is Riske- and she lost in the first round against Vickery. read more

Open 13 (Marseille). Stefanos Tsitsipas v Hubert Hurkacz. Match Preview and Free Betting Tip #TipstersClub (by Ardeal)

Indoor tennis started and I have to say I love it! This is the best time of the season, along with the short grass court part. I love it because there is enough data to compile odds, enough data to see how each player has played in the past on this surface, but also there are a lot of courts covered by streamings and that is the best way to analyze a match.

Tsitsipas is the #12 in the world right now, reaching this ranking after this superb run to the Semis of Australian Open. The fact that he didn’t do anything after that is no surprise, as he stated several times that his physical condition isn’t that what he hoped for and he is really tired after the long AO campaign.

Stef played Sofia where he won 7-6 6-4 against Struff and then lost to Monfils 6-3 7-6. He then played Rotterdam where he lost to Dzumhur 6-4 1-6 7-5, as a 1.19 favorite to win the match. I saw all matches after the Australian swing and I have to say he is was not fully fit and not even close to fully committed to the matches played.

Most of the tennis-followers say that Tsitsi is the new Federer and is a breath of fresh air on the ATP tour. I might have to disagree with this as I don’t really rate him that much. It is hard to compare a kid to Federer, and comparing a kid that can barely break serve to that level of achievement is pure insanity.

Tsitsipas played 14 matches in 2019 and won 8 of them, 5 of them came in Australia. So, besides of the Australian run, he has won 3 other matches. He managed to lose to Norrie (Hopman Cup), Federer (Hopman Cup), Seppi (Sydney), Monfils (Sofia), and Dzumhur (Rotterdam). 4 of those mentioned losses came as him being a favorite. During those 14 matches played in this year, he managed to play 42 sets of tennis, and of those 42 sets of tennis, he played a stunning amount of tie-breaks (13 tie-breaks). That is 30,95% chance of playing a tie-break in a set. That is nearly an Ivo/Isner level of tie-breaks played.

In 2019, in his official ATP matches, he managed to hold serve 87% of times (which is really good), but break only 14% of all return games. That is really low for a player ranked #12. These numbers show us a clear story of Tsitsipas. He is over-achieving by winning a lot of close matches, and also tie-breaks in the end.

Stefanos will face in this match, top-ranked Polish player, Hubert Hurkacz. One thing you need to know about Hubert is that he is a great server and possesses a great power when serving. He is also playing a lot of tie-breaks in his matches, but he is still between ATP challenger level and rising to the ATP full-time. He played 11 matches in 2019 and win 7 of them, while during those 11 matches he played 27 sets of tennis. During those 27 sets, he played 11 tie-breaks (4 of them came against Karlovic tho).

Hubert loves playing indoors as he can use his services at full value. Indoors there isn’t any wind and the temperature is constant. Hubert started the Marseille campaign with a surprising win over Krajinovic, being a 2.84 underdog in that clash. This is the first time he plays Marseille, which is not surprising as he played in the past mostly in Challenger events. Hubert’s stats for his 2019 ATP matches are a bit misleading and cannot be considered fully as he played 4 sets against Karlovic. He has an 88% hold percentage (out of 49 service games played) and 4% break percentage (out of his 50 return games played).

Anyway, we can see a clear pattern here, and having two players that rely on their serves, while return this poorly we can clearly expect them to have a close encounter with a tie-break at least. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if HH will win a set, or the match in the end, considering the form Stef is currently. Even a close loss will make this bet a winner here.

The two players have played a match in the NextGen Finals last year, a match won by Tsitsipas 4-1 4-3 4-1, but that really doesn’t matter as they played with special rules there (no-deuce most important).

Hurkacz +3.5 Games @ 2.05 (10 units) with Pinnacle (via SportMarket)

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Delray Beach Open. Nick Kyrgios v John Millman. Match Preview and Free Betting Tip #TipstersClub (by Ardeal)

American outdoor hard court swing starts with Delray Beach Open and we do have a match to be excited about, on a betting way at least. But to that a bit later.

Delray Beach Open is a 250 ATP event that is held in Delray Beach, Florida since 1993. The current title holder is American Frances Tiafoe. In the past years, we did saw a lot of big servers prevail here and the only one that won this title twice in the past 10 years is Ernests Gulbis. The last 5 years this title has been won by Cilic, Karlovic, Querrey, Sock, and Tiafoe. We definitely can see a pattern here. The seeds list for 2019 tournament is rather disappointing with Del Potro (injury problems), Isner (out of form), Tiafoe, Johnson, Millman, Seppi, Fritz, and Mannarino. The 8th seed of Delray Beach is Mannarino, who is ranked #51 in the world and has a 0-6 record in 2019. Just imagine…

They use a Plexipave outdoor hard court that’s rather bouncy and from past experience plays quite slow and heavy at night. Wind is always a big factor, while there might be also some medium-high humidity in the air.

The match I am thinking about most in a betting fashion is the ultimate battle between tennis styles, the match between two fellow Aussies, Nick Kyrgios and John Millman.

The years of these two couldn’t have been more different too. Nick played 4 matches in 2019 and lost 3 of them, while during those 4 matches he played 11 sets of tennis (4 of them were tie-breaks). He lost to Chardy in Brisbane, to Tomic in Kooyong Exhibition, and to Raonic in Australian Open round 1 clash. He hasn’t been impressive at all this year, while in addition to his poor form he had some serious injury issues. Last year he had a hip injury in August and ended the year in December with an elbow injury, while this year he was bitten by a spider and had some swallowed up ankle. Nothing working in his favor right now, not even the Goddess Fortune didn’t do her magic in the draw as he has to face one of the most serious players on tour.

Besides being a very serious player, Millman is also a very hard worker and one of the biggest fighters there is in ATP rankings. He isn’t that flashy and doesn’t try trick-shots as Nick does, but you can put money on him and you know he will give everything. John has a 5W-4L this year and has defeated Sandgren, Tiafoe, Fucsovics, Delbonis, and Dzumhur so far this year. Last year in February, John played Montpellier indoors and lost in the 2nd round, and also won a Challenger event in Kyoto. The sad thing about his career is that he didn’t even win an ATP event so far, but I think that might change this year, as he truly deserves it!

Motivation is a big part of my bet’s arguments, as Kyrgios usually just clowns around during these small tournaments and loses very often as a big favorite (lost to Chardy as 1.37 fave and Tomic as 1.58, while in second part of 2018 he lost to Nishikori in Wimbledon as 1.40, in Atlanta against Norrie as 1.23, in Tokyo against Gasquet as 1.56, in Shanghai as 1.25 against Klahn, and withdrew before playing Basic in Moskow). We can surely see a pattern here and combining this lack of motivation in small tournaments with his physical problems is a perfect mixture to make Millman favorite here.

Millman will do his best to win a couple of matches here and maybe do a nice run and give himself the possibility to win his maiden ATP title.

These two players have met before, back in 2017 during the US Open first round, and then Millman did win the clash 3-1 (6-3 1-6 6-4 6-1), which also shows us, that him losing a set clearly won’t make him stop fighting. This match is the ultimate betting opportunity in my opinion and that’s why I have shared this #FreeTip with you guys!

I would definitely back Millman at a bookie that doesn’t void a retirement after one set played, as Kyrgios might retire at any point, as he has done in the past.

Millman to win @ 2.03 (10 units) with Matchbook (via SportMarket)

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Australian Open WTA Final – Naomi Osaka v Petra Kvitova – Match Preview and Free Betting Tips #AusOpen #TipstersClub (by Ardeal)

The Australian Open final on the women side will take place 26th of January after 9:30 CET. The match couldn’t have been more interesting as, let’s say, we do have the most in-form two girls facing each other on Rod Laver Arena for the Australian Open trophy. The first contender is Japanese Naomi Osaka, ranked no. 4 in the world, and the holder of the US Open trophy (2018). She will face Czech Petra Kvitova, ranked no. 6.

Amazing enough is that they both play for the perfect Slam Final record, but also for the world no. 1 ranking, a ranking that neither of them have been. read more

No Pinnacle, IBC, Matchbook or SBO account? Don’t worry! There is SportMarket for all of these!

We all know which bookies are the best in business and which you need to avoid, or at least need to trick to get money from their pockets.

Once you get to the level of betting where you constantly win you will find out that there are two kinds of bookies around:
1. Where one account is enough for the entire life… And that is the bookie that welcomes winners.
2. Where you need to create accounts once a month with different names because you won. These bookies can be called casual bookmakers and most of them are this kind. read more

Australian Open 2019. Alex Bolt v Jack Sock match preview and free tip. (Ardeal)

The match that caught my attention from the ATP side of the first round ist he clash of two players ranked outside the top-100. Homeboy and wildcard, Alex Bolt (ranked #155) will face American ranked #105 in the world, Jack Sock.

Alex played 5 times in the Australian Open, from those he only played twice in the main draw and is yet to win a main draw match. Interesting is that he never lost a match in Australian Open (qualification or main draw) without winning at least one set, and he never lost at the spread offered. In 2017 he won 3 qualification matches (against Copil, Bachinger, and Benneteau) while being the underdog in 2/3 matches. He then lost to Nishioka in the first round (6-4 1-6 6-2 6-4, covering the spread as a 2.47 underdog). In 2018 he got a WC for the main draw and faced Troicki (Bolt was 3.74 underdog) where he lost in 5 sets, after being 2 sets up. He lost at 6 games, covering the +6.5 offered spread once again. read more

Australian Open 2019. Venus Williams v Mihaela Buzarnescu match preview and free tip. (Ardeal)

One of the best matches to bet in the first round of Australian Open is one in the WTA draw; a match between veteran American, Venus Williams, and lefty Romanian, Mihaela Buzarnescu.

38 years young and ranked #37 in the world, Venus didn’t get any seedings in the Australian Open draw and has, let’s say, a hard road ahead if she wants to achieve something during these two weeks.

Venus had a decent 2018 with 17 wins and 11 losses, from those 12 wins and 7 losses on hard courts. Her best results came at the beginning of the year, a reason why I do back her here. She took a set off Kerber in Sydney back then and lost to Bencic in the 1st round of Australian Open (a hard opponent to face in R1). After those two matches, she got to the Indian Wells SF and tot e Miami QF. read more

Benoit Paire v Kenny De Schepper | 06.11.2018 | Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger | Tennis | Match preview and Free Tip by Ardeal

There are a couple of more weeks with at least average quality tennis to be played (ATP Challenger level), with the last one finishing 25th of November 2018, in Andria (Italy). This week we have 4 tournaments to be played, and nice to see such a well-balanced mixture, with two Challengers played indoors in Europe (Bratislava and Mouilleron le Captif), one played on hard outdoor in USA (Knoxville), and one in Uruguay on outdoor clay (Montevideo).

 

The match I will analyze today is the first-round match between two Frenchies, held in France.  The match will have facing no. 53 in the world, Benoit Paire, and no. 209, Kenny De Schepper.  Benoit Paire is a 29 years-old Frenchie, with a height of 196cm and using a Right-Handed Forehand and a Two-Handed Backhand. He is being coached, currently, by Jean-Charles Diame. Kenny De Schepper is a 31 years-old Frenchie, with a height of 203cm and using a Left-Handed Forehand and a One-Handed Backhand. He is being coached, currently, by Henri Fabrega.

Paire’s style of play is characterized by its flashiness, unpredictability and at times inconsistency. The main strength of his game is his double-handed backhand, known for its speed and spin. Paire often uses topspin backhands crosscourt at great speed and acute angles to set up a powerful backhand down-the-line to finish off points. In contrast, his forehand is relatively less powerful and consistent, particularly when played on the defense, to the extent that he’s been known to hit backhands inside-out. Paire is also known for his ability and willingness to play drop-shots often on both the forehand and backhand wing throughout matches. Paire possesses a powerful but inconsistent first serve and serves-and-volleys on occasion. Above all, Paire is known for his flashiness on the court. He is known to hit a variety of high-risk shots and trick shots, such as the frontal and back tweener, jumping tweener, drop shots that backspin towards the net and topspin backhands at extremely acute angles, even when unnecessary to win the point. Because of this, he often lightens the mood in matches and wins the crowd’s favor. Of course, because of the same flashy shots, he takes he is known to be one of the most inconsistent players on tour. He is also known to be a choker and to be losing his head when his shots don’t bring the desired results in a short time. He is a player that “loves a good tank”, and there are plenty of examples where he didn’t really bother to do anything on the court.

De Schepper’s style of play can be characterized almost to be opposite to this clash’s opponent. He is known to fight for every ball, run around the court from side to side and slicing, or hitting deep almost every ball, but rarely attacking for a winner, and only when in a great position. He is also known for his good serve that slides away from the opponent and having 2.03m and 104kg one can definitely assume that the power in the service is also very good. The only aspect that is worth mentioning is that Kenny had some back problems which have limit his swing and power used during his service motion. Nevertheless, he possesses a fine service, combined with a good defense and an excellent reach and touch at the net. His movement is shaky, but at least he has the head to fight till the end no matter what the result is.

 

Benoit Has played a lot of tennis this year, with 65 matches (won 32 matches) played in singles and 19 matches (won 9 of them) played in doubles. He had some average results during this year, like the SFs in Pune and Sydney in January, and couple of 3rd rounds in Masters tournaments. Since Wimbledon, he has struggled to find some form, winning only twice 2+ consecutive matches, and one of those times his opponent retired (Pospisil). The fact that he hasn’t played any Challenger Tour matches in 2018 shows us that his ranking level allowed him to get in many main-draws, or at least find some spots in the qualifications of all important matches. It is for the first time since 2008 where he didn’t play any Challenger matches the entire year (besides the actual one). Last year he played in April Sophia Antipolis Ch (lost the final to Bedene), and also the current event (Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger) where he retired in the first round 6-1 5-4 up to Romain Barbosa. Unfortunately for us, his results in this particular Challenger event are good, with a trophy in 2015, a semifinal in 2016 and that mentioned retirement in 2017. Fact is that he hasn’t really “crushed” any of his opponents, losing sets in 6/9 matches that have been finished. The other wins that occurred in straight sets, came against Lestienne (13-10), Janvier (12-8), and Eysseric (12-7). Paire managed to lose as the favorite in the past months to Struff (7-6 6-3 in Winston Salem), Maden (6-4 3-6 6-3 in Metz), Gerasimov (6-4 6-4 in Moskow), Popyrin (6-3 6-3 in Basel), and Fucsovics (6-4 6-4 in Paris Bercy). To top all these bad recent results he also had some physical problems during 2018 and took medical time-outs several times.

 

His current opponent would be clearly the underdog in any serious match between these two and is priced also 3.15 by Pinnacle to win this match. But… And here is a big but. De Schepper ties the direct meetings with Paire (2-2), both having won 1-each in the past 3 years. Paire won in Cherbourg Challenger (indoor back in the days Paire played a lot of these tournaments), while De Schepper won 2-1 in Umag last year (on clay- which is his worst surface of all to play on). To be perfectly honest, De Schepper had a shitty year in 2018, with a record of 27W-32L in singles and 4W-7L in doubles. He started the season with a semifinal in Noumea CHallenger and a final in Koblenz, but after that nothing fell the right way for this gentle giant. He got some good results recently, with a semifinal in Mallorca (start of September) and with a semifinal in Orleans (end of September). His past two matches have been both lost, being the favorite, both lost in close fashion 7-6 6-4, to Stakhovsky in Antwerp Q, and Bonzi in Eckental Challenger.

 

My main bet on this match, despite me thinking that “King Kenny” will win it, is the +3 Asian Handicap on the big lefty French player. Kenny has played a tie-break in 7 out of his last 8 indoor matches (the only one that had no tie-break was a clear win over Maden 6-0 6-4). He covered the +3 handicap in 7 out of the last 9 matches (but two of them were voids as mentioned before). The reason why the Asian Handicap is the main bet is that Paire is known to tank sets and lose them 6-1 or 6-2, which virtually would guarantee to win this bet. Benoit has a fairly inconsistent serve and the fact that this match will be played in an unimportant “venue” is also a bonus that can push him to tank. Of Course, Kenny is a limited player that can do only “this” much, but with a little help (which I am sure he will get) he might also get the win. Paire can get frustrated very rapidly and start hitting unforced-error after unforced-error. How do I see the match? I see some long rallies, easy holds from Kenny and a lot of unforced errors from Benoit from his forehand side. I don’t want to seem over-confident of this bet, but I think that Kenny will win it 6-2 7-6 or something like that, winning at least a set is a banker in my book.

Kenny De Schepper +3 games @ 1.91 with 10 units

(from Pinnacle via broker SportMarket)

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The ‘Champ Champ’ Daniel Cormier will school Derrick Lewis

Madison Square Garden sets the stage for UFC230 this weekend in New York, without surprise, the UFC has failed to give this card the promotion it deserves.

Daniel Cormier (21-1-0) takes on ‘The Black Beast’ Derrick Lewis in a 5 round Heavyweight division title fight. The turnaround for Lewis has been less than a month as we saw him knockout Alexander Volkov at the beginning of October at UFC226.

Any die-hard realises Lewis has one path to victory in this fight, he either catches Cormier with that huge one punch KO or he losses and giving the fact Cormier is p4p (in my opinion) one of the greatest fighters we’ve been blessed to watch, Derricks chances of a victory are very slim.

The 39-year-old former Olympic champion Daniel Cormier has had one of the most decorative careers than any other fighter in the UFC. With his one kryptonite and only loss being Jon Jones, I truly believe DC will end his career defeating Jon! The current light heavyweight and heavyweight champion Cormier has defeated a long list of killers from strike force and the UFC… Anderson Silva, Frank Mir, Roy Nelson, Dan Henderson, Rumble Johnson, Alex Gustafsson, Volkan Ozdemir & Stipe Miocic just to name a few.

I don’t think DC will risk a standup war with Derrick, straight into round 1 I vision the champ using his ultra high-level wrestling to wear down the black beast right off the bat. I wouldn’t be surprised if Daniel instantly takes this fight to the floor and finishes it via submission or ground and pound in round 1, but if DC doesn’t finish right away it’s going to be a long night for Lewis. Daniel will smoother him and keep himself well away from that devastating KO power that Derrick possesses. Eventually, DC will get the finish I have no doubt in that.

I’m not sure taking a fight 4 weeks out from getting lit up by Volkan until the 3rd round finish was a smart move by Lewis, but I also realise in this sport you have to take your chances. Unfortunately for Lewis, he’s matched up with one of the greats, without taking anything away from Lewis and his accomplishments he just doesn’t match up to the skill set of Cormier.

So this week’s free tip is quite obvious but the price is really ugly so I’m going to double up with another matchup I think relies on the weaker opponent needing to put all hope in the KO which is Isreal Adesanya vs Dereck Brunson. Israel ‘style-bender’ Adesanya will be the second British born champion in the UFC next to Michael Bisping, Brunson is just a bump in the road that Adesanya has to drive over.

The striking and movement skill of Isreal is a nice breath of fresh air to watch in the octagon, he’s like a Jon Jones/Mcgregor hybrid. Youtube search the man and enjoy his highlight reels, you won’t be disappointed.

The bookie knows what’s good too, as both Daniel and Israel are priced quite high. Combine them both and that will be this week’s free tip.

Free Prediction: Daniel Cormier & Israel Adesanya both win
Stake : 5units @ 1.67

Tune in this Saturday/Sunday night on BTsports from 12 midnight BST for UFC230 @ Madison Square Garden.

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Points gained – Is this advanced stat really good for NBA predictions?

The POINTS GAINED stat

This might be a little confusing especially if you are not into basketball advanced stats but bear with me for this blog post and I will try to make it easy to understand. I only heard about this stat this summer listening to a podcast but at first, I did not give too much importance to it. However, after the first matches of the season, I am starting to believe the ‘Points Gained’ stats can help a lot when we want to predict how good a team will be. So let’s start this by explaining what points gained means. I won’t go in details but this state refers to how more points a certain player gain than the average player in the NBA. For example, the leader in points gained last season was Curry at +4.7 points which means that with the 19.5 scoring opportunities he has per game he scores 4.7 more points than the average NBA player would score with the same amount of scoring opportunities. The next players in the standings are Durant, Harden, Towns, Lebron and Davis so it is pretty safe to say that this stat is pretty good in measuring player actual contribution.

How does this stat actually helps us?

So the next step we need to take so we can predict a team performance is to add all their player’s points gained. Last season this worked pretty well and most notably the Rockets had almost the same number of points gained as the Warriors. As we saw last season the Rockets actually had more wins than the Warriors in the regular season and almost won in the Western Conference Finals.  This model also predicted 7 of the top 8 offenses in the Western Conference which is very impressive. So what is this model saying about the new season? Well… The Warriors are still number 1 as everyone could guess but we have a new number 2: the New Orleans Pelicans. I was not very sure what to believe about this team but the first 2 games of the season confirmed the points gained theory. The Pelicans offense was absolutely unstoppable and they actually became the first team in the last 20 years that managed to score at least 130 points in both of their first 2 games of a season. Is this a coincidence? Maybe, but considering other teams that are high in the points gained standings also started the season very strong I believe there is a chance it is more than that.

Why the points gained stat likes the Pelicans so much?

The main reason is their superstar Anthony Davis who is one of the best players in the world. He is very good in points gained too and considering that he is still young I expect him to have another huge season and lead his team to glory. However, the thing that makes the Pelicans so good in points gained is that the majority of their players are not negative in this statistic. Actually, many of their players including Mirotic, Holiday, Miller and Randle are above average. In contrast, a team like the Rockets may have some very good players in points gained like Harden, Paul or Capela but they also have some high negative players like Carmelo or Carter Williams replacing positive players like Ariza and Mbah a Moute.

Are the Pelicans good in real life too?

So if you read what I said so far it is clear that the points gained statistic likes the Pelicans a lot. The same statistic that predicted the Rockets will be great in 2017/18 says that this is the Pelicans year. But what is my opinion on the Pelicans in real life? I will only say that I absolutely loved what I saw in the first 2 matches and if they stay healthy I am pretty sure they will be a problem this year. Now let’s take a short look at their roster. Davis is one of the best players in the world, a two-way guy that will be a Hall-Of-Famer and have a good chance to win the MVP. Holiday is a great complementary star who also plays hard both on offense and defense. He is a former-Starr and if he would’ve stayed healthy in recent years his reputation would’ve been way better in my opinion. He showed how good he is in the playoffs last year dominating superstar Lillard in the first round sweep. Another important piece is Nikola Mirotic who started the season with 2 incredible performances. He won’t play like that all season long but he is an underrated player. Last year he played for the Bulls until being traded to the Pels and when he was available the team record was 14-11. Without him, they went 13-47. If that’s not impressive I don’t know what it is. The biggest acquisition this summer was Julius Randle and I was very impressed by this young man progress in the second part of the last season. In the first 2 matches of this season, he looked even better making some threes and being dominant attacking the paint. Randle is a unique player that is very hard to defend by shorter and weaker players. In a league that rely more and more on switching a player like Randle becomes even more valuable. Another acquisition this summer is Payton who was signed to replace Rondo. While I am not very high on the young guard I could easily see him having his most efficient season in his career considering that he never played for a team that had a good until the Pelicans. Some other important pieces are E’twaun Moore and

Darius Miller read more