“WTA Monterrey Outright bets and Draw Analysis.” by Ardeal

Monterrey tournament is ongoing and I’m trying to make it as short as possible so as many as you guys will be able to back my outright/futures picks. The tournament is held in the city of Monterrey (540m altitude), Mexico, on hard courts and has featured a 32-player draw. The 2018 tournament winner was Spain’s Garbine Muguruza, who defeated Babos in the final.

Top remaining seeds in Monterrey are as follows: #5 Kerber (1), #19 Muguruza (2), #33 Pavlyuchenkova (3), #67 Azarenka (5), #58 Flipkens (6), #66 Mladenovic (7) and #71 Rybarikova (8). The only seed that lost so far is Riske- and she lost in the first round against Vickery. read more

Open 13 (Marseille). Stefanos Tsitsipas v Hubert Hurkacz. Match Preview and Free Betting Tip #TipstersClub (by Ardeal)

Indoor tennis started and I have to say I love it! This is the best time of the season, along with the short grass court part. I love it because there is enough data to compile odds, enough data to see how each player has played in the past on this surface, but also there are a lot of courts covered by streamings and that is the best way to analyze a match.

Tsitsipas is the #12 in the world right now, reaching this ranking after this superb run to the Semis of Australian Open. The fact that he didn’t do anything after that is no surprise, as he stated several times that his physical condition isn’t that what he hoped for and he is really tired after the long AO campaign.

Stef played Sofia where he won 7-6 6-4 against Struff and then lost to Monfils 6-3 7-6. He then played Rotterdam where he lost to Dzumhur 6-4 1-6 7-5, as a 1.19 favorite to win the match. I saw all matches after the Australian swing and I have to say he is was not fully fit and not even close to fully committed to the matches played.

Most of the tennis-followers say that Tsitsi is the new Federer and is a breath of fresh air on the ATP tour. I might have to disagree with this as I don’t really rate him that much. It is hard to compare a kid to Federer, and comparing a kid that can barely break serve to that level of achievement is pure insanity.

Tsitsipas played 14 matches in 2019 and won 8 of them, 5 of them came in Australia. So, besides of the Australian run, he has won 3 other matches. He managed to lose to Norrie (Hopman Cup), Federer (Hopman Cup), Seppi (Sydney), Monfils (Sofia), and Dzumhur (Rotterdam). 4 of those mentioned losses came as him being a favorite. During those 14 matches played in this year, he managed to play 42 sets of tennis, and of those 42 sets of tennis, he played a stunning amount of tie-breaks (13 tie-breaks). That is 30,95% chance of playing a tie-break in a set. That is nearly an Ivo/Isner level of tie-breaks played.

In 2019, in his official ATP matches, he managed to hold serve 87% of times (which is really good), but break only 14% of all return games. That is really low for a player ranked #12. These numbers show us a clear story of Tsitsipas. He is over-achieving by winning a lot of close matches, and also tie-breaks in the end.

Stefanos will face in this match, top-ranked Polish player, Hubert Hurkacz. One thing you need to know about Hubert is that he is a great server and possesses a great power when serving. He is also playing a lot of tie-breaks in his matches, but he is still between ATP challenger level and rising to the ATP full-time. He played 11 matches in 2019 and win 7 of them, while during those 11 matches he played 27 sets of tennis. During those 27 sets, he played 11 tie-breaks (4 of them came against Karlovic tho).

Hubert loves playing indoors as he can use his services at full value. Indoors there isn’t any wind and the temperature is constant. Hubert started the Marseille campaign with a surprising win over Krajinovic, being a 2.84 underdog in that clash. This is the first time he plays Marseille, which is not surprising as he played in the past mostly in Challenger events. Hubert’s stats for his 2019 ATP matches are a bit misleading and cannot be considered fully as he played 4 sets against Karlovic. He has an 88% hold percentage (out of 49 service games played) and 4% break percentage (out of his 50 return games played).

Anyway, we can see a clear pattern here, and having two players that rely on their serves, while return this poorly we can clearly expect them to have a close encounter with a tie-break at least. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if HH will win a set, or the match in the end, considering the form Stef is currently. Even a close loss will make this bet a winner here.

The two players have played a match in the NextGen Finals last year, a match won by Tsitsipas 4-1 4-3 4-1, but that really doesn’t matter as they played with special rules there (no-deuce most important).

Hurkacz +3.5 Games @ 2.05 (10 units) with Pinnacle (via SportMarket)

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Delray Beach Open. Nick Kyrgios v John Millman. Match Preview and Free Betting Tip #TipstersClub (by Ardeal)

American outdoor hard court swing starts with Delray Beach Open and we do have a match to be excited about, on a betting way at least. But to that a bit later.

Delray Beach Open is a 250 ATP event that is held in Delray Beach, Florida since 1993. The current title holder is American Frances Tiafoe. In the past years, we did saw a lot of big servers prevail here and the only one that won this title twice in the past 10 years is Ernests Gulbis. The last 5 years this title has been won by Cilic, Karlovic, Querrey, Sock, and Tiafoe. We definitely can see a pattern here. The seeds list for 2019 tournament is rather disappointing with Del Potro (injury problems), Isner (out of form), Tiafoe, Johnson, Millman, Seppi, Fritz, and Mannarino. The 8th seed of Delray Beach is Mannarino, who is ranked #51 in the world and has a 0-6 record in 2019. Just imagine…

They use a Plexipave outdoor hard court that’s rather bouncy and from past experience plays quite slow and heavy at night. Wind is always a big factor, while there might be also some medium-high humidity in the air.

The match I am thinking about most in a betting fashion is the ultimate battle between tennis styles, the match between two fellow Aussies, Nick Kyrgios and John Millman.

The years of these two couldn’t have been more different too. Nick played 4 matches in 2019 and lost 3 of them, while during those 4 matches he played 11 sets of tennis (4 of them were tie-breaks). He lost to Chardy in Brisbane, to Tomic in Kooyong Exhibition, and to Raonic in Australian Open round 1 clash. He hasn’t been impressive at all this year, while in addition to his poor form he had some serious injury issues. Last year he had a hip injury in August and ended the year in December with an elbow injury, while this year he was bitten by a spider and had some swallowed up ankle. Nothing working in his favor right now, not even the Goddess Fortune didn’t do her magic in the draw as he has to face one of the most serious players on tour.

Besides being a very serious player, Millman is also a very hard worker and one of the biggest fighters there is in ATP rankings. He isn’t that flashy and doesn’t try trick-shots as Nick does, but you can put money on him and you know he will give everything. John has a 5W-4L this year and has defeated Sandgren, Tiafoe, Fucsovics, Delbonis, and Dzumhur so far this year. Last year in February, John played Montpellier indoors and lost in the 2nd round, and also won a Challenger event in Kyoto. The sad thing about his career is that he didn’t even win an ATP event so far, but I think that might change this year, as he truly deserves it!

Motivation is a big part of my bet’s arguments, as Kyrgios usually just clowns around during these small tournaments and loses very often as a big favorite (lost to Chardy as 1.37 fave and Tomic as 1.58, while in second part of 2018 he lost to Nishikori in Wimbledon as 1.40, in Atlanta against Norrie as 1.23, in Tokyo against Gasquet as 1.56, in Shanghai as 1.25 against Klahn, and withdrew before playing Basic in Moskow). We can surely see a pattern here and combining this lack of motivation in small tournaments with his physical problems is a perfect mixture to make Millman favorite here.

Millman will do his best to win a couple of matches here and maybe do a nice run and give himself the possibility to win his maiden ATP title.

These two players have met before, back in 2017 during the US Open first round, and then Millman did win the clash 3-1 (6-3 1-6 6-4 6-1), which also shows us, that him losing a set clearly won’t make him stop fighting. This match is the ultimate betting opportunity in my opinion and that’s why I have shared this #FreeTip with you guys!

I would definitely back Millman at a bookie that doesn’t void a retirement after one set played, as Kyrgios might retire at any point, as he has done in the past.

Millman to win @ 2.03 (10 units) with Matchbook (via SportMarket)

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Australian Open WTA Final – Naomi Osaka v Petra Kvitova – Match Preview and Free Betting Tips #AusOpen #TipstersClub (by Ardeal)

The Australian Open final on the women side will take place 26th of January after 9:30 CET. The match couldn’t have been more interesting as, let’s say, we do have the most in-form two girls facing each other on Rod Laver Arena for the Australian Open trophy. The first contender is Japanese Naomi Osaka, ranked no. 4 in the world, and the holder of the US Open trophy (2018). She will face Czech Petra Kvitova, ranked no. 6.

Amazing enough is that they both play for the perfect Slam Final record, but also for the world no. 1 ranking, a ranking that neither of them have been. read more

Australian Open 2019. Alex Bolt v Jack Sock match preview and free tip. (Ardeal)

The match that caught my attention from the ATP side of the first round ist he clash of two players ranked outside the top-100. Homeboy and wildcard, Alex Bolt (ranked #155) will face American ranked #105 in the world, Jack Sock.

Alex played 5 times in the Australian Open, from those he only played twice in the main draw and is yet to win a main draw match. Interesting is that he never lost a match in Australian Open (qualification or main draw) without winning at least one set, and he never lost at the spread offered. In 2017 he won 3 qualification matches (against Copil, Bachinger, and Benneteau) while being the underdog in 2/3 matches. He then lost to Nishioka in the first round (6-4 1-6 6-2 6-4, covering the spread as a 2.47 underdog). In 2018 he got a WC for the main draw and faced Troicki (Bolt was 3.74 underdog) where he lost in 5 sets, after being 2 sets up. He lost at 6 games, covering the +6.5 offered spread once again. read more

Australian Open 2019. Venus Williams v Mihaela Buzarnescu match preview and free tip. (Ardeal)

One of the best matches to bet in the first round of Australian Open is one in the WTA draw; a match between veteran American, Venus Williams, and lefty Romanian, Mihaela Buzarnescu.

38 years young and ranked #37 in the world, Venus didn’t get any seedings in the Australian Open draw and has, let’s say, a hard road ahead if she wants to achieve something during these two weeks.

Venus had a decent 2018 with 17 wins and 11 losses, from those 12 wins and 7 losses on hard courts. Her best results came at the beginning of the year, a reason why I do back her here. She took a set off Kerber in Sydney back then and lost to Bencic in the 1st round of Australian Open (a hard opponent to face in R1). After those two matches, she got to the Indian Wells SF and tot e Miami QF. read more

‘The Colonel’ Mikhail Youzhny Gives Final Salute

“I can say I had a great career. I never thought I could play until 2018 and I can play at a high level,” Youzhny told ATPWorldTour.com.

“I was one of the youngest guys from my age who went into the Top 100 and from all the times, I was at a high level. All the time I can say I was a professional, that’s why I maybe stayed later in the tennis career.”

Starting to write an article about a tennis-player that I have been watching almost his entire career, a tennis-player that is now retired, that is a hard thing to do. A hard thing? You might ask. Yes! It is hard because he has done so much in his 20 years of pro-tennis, but also hard because it makes you feel old and you can feel the time passing by.

This is my first article about any player, and to be honest, I am pretty sad and sorry that I have, sort of, to do it. You will read something about Youzhny everywhere these days, and this article is meant to keep his memory alive despite retiring.

 

Mikhail Youzhny was born on 25th June 1982 in Moskow, Russia to Mikhail, a Soviet army colonel and Lubov, a professional tennis player. He has started playing tennis at age 6 and turned pro at age 17. It was his father who had steered him and older brother Andrei into tennis and sacrificed his career in the Soviet army to support them; it was because of his father that Boris Sobkin became his coach at the age of 10.

At the age of 13, he was a ballboy for a Russia – United States Davis Cup final in Moscow. His juniors career brought him 3 doubles titles and a runner-up title, and one singles title and 1 runner-up (Australian Open Final in 1999), having a decent record in the 4 years of juniors activity (45W-23L in singles and 28W-16L in doubles) and reached a career high of #20 in those junior rankings.

Playing Style, Coaching and equipment

Talking about Mikhail Youzhny, one has to mention the powerful and consistent groundstrokes on both sides, combined with the deadly accurate backhand slice. However, while his backhand slice was a good defensive weapon, his main attacking weapon was his one-handed backhand hit with topspin, which he used successfully cross-angled, but down-the-line too.

He used as backhand grip around 3/4 of the way from Continental toward Modified Eastern. His grip is close enough to Modified Eastern to allow him to hit topspin with reasonable comfort, but most players would hit stronger topspin with a grip right on Modified Eastern or closer to Full Eastern. Youzhny’s backhand grip would work well for the slice, but it changes to an Eastern forehand grip for his slice.

According to The New York Times columnist Christopher Clarley, Youzhny’s one-handed backhand was one of the more unusual ones on tour, hit with a “free left arm accompanying his right arm as he swings through the ball.”

He was also noted for his good court sense and often used drop shots to mix up his game, and he is very talented at volleying, not surprisingly those great doubles results.

Youzhny was good on all surfaces and was noted for his all-court game and was noted for his ability to be able to change surfaces quickly without difficulty. However, his favorite surface was hard indoors.

Youzhny was known on tour for his post-match military salute at the end of the match. Honoring his late father, Youzhny placed his racquet on his head while saluting the crowd instead of the hat that Russian military protocol dictates.

Boris Sobkin was Youzhny’s coach since the age of 10 because of Youzhny’s father’s interference, while his fitness trainer is Oleg Mosiakov. Youzhny wore Adidas clothing and Barricade 7.0 shoes and used a Head Graphene XT Extreme Pro racquet.

Year-by-Year Career

1998

Mikhail’s first professional match was in Russia, on hard courts, against #589 Denis Glazov, in 1998. He lost that match from set up, 5-7 6-3 6-2, but everybody could have seen the talent and potential this young lad had. During 1998 he managed to reach a quarter-final in Russia F2, which was a great result considering he was there a wild card.

1999

Mikhail started playing regularly in on the pro-circuit in 1999, and during August (as a 17 years-old youngster) he managed to win his first two ITF titles WITHOUT DROPPING A SET:
– Belarus F1 on indoors carpet, defeating #593 Michael Llodra (who will be in the next years a top player too, career high of #21, 5 singles titles and 26 doubles titles, from which 3 Slam doubles titles)
– Russia F2 on hard, defeating #894 Ben Qiang Zhu

October came and he won another 2 ITF titles:
– Great Britain F10 on hard, defeating #568 Tom Spinks
– Great Britain F11 on hard, defeating Helge Koll Frafjord

It was clear he was too good for the ITF level (32-14 record for the 18 months spent on this level) and this is where he did the transition to the Challenger level, without playing an ITF match since.

In his first Challenger even he managed to get to the QF of Nuembrecht CH in November 1999, losing to #114 Martin Damm but also winning against #55 Jeff Tarango during that week.

2000

The year 2000 was another transition year for young Youzhny, now from Challenger level to ATP level. This year he reached his first Challenger final (Cherbourg CH) and won his first Challenger title funny enough, on clay(Samarkand CH).

Notable wins during this season were on ATP level, in Moskow, where he managed to defeat #36 Fabrice Santoro and #60 Thomas Johansson, reaching his first ATP quarter-final (lost to #35 Marc Rosset). This year he faced for the first time, GOAT-to-became, Roger Federer (#29 at the time), to whom he lost 5-7 6-4 6-3 in Stockholm.

2001

At the age of 18, the Russian youngster was saying goodbye to the Challenger level and started grinding the ATP level, also breaking the top 100 for the first time (after the wins in Australian Open over #115 Diaz and #62 Zabaleta). He then managed to reach the SF of Copenhagen where he lost to #47 Vinciguerra a 3-set battle. During 2001 he represented for the first time Russia in Davis Cup, losing 3-0 to #5 Magnus Norman, and 2-1 to #25 Thomas Johansson in a dead-rubber match. Reaching his first Masters R16 came in the next week. His first R16 in a Slam came the same year, in Wimbledon, having defeated #31 Voltchkov, #69 Dupuis, and #25 Santoro, just to lose in 4 sets to #10 Pat Rafter (runner-up in that year). He ends the year with a 20-21 record, all matches played on ATP level and Davis Cup.

2002

The year 2002 is a break-through year for young Youzhny, as he manages to win his first ATP title in Stuttgart, on clay, defeating #19 Canas in the final, but also winning his first match against a top-10 opponent, in #7 Tommy Haas, in Munich. He ends the year with a 31-24 record, a final in St. Petersburg, lost to #7 Grosjean, and a 5-set win in Davis Cup against #36 Mathieu. At the end of 2002, he manages to reach his all-time high ranking of #32.

2003 and 2004

The year 2003 brings Mikhail a SF in Doha, a R16 in Australian Open, a SF in Halle (lost another 3-setter to Federer), a SF in Lyon and a 29-28 record for the year. He managed to gather a couple of more top-10 wins, all 4 wins to Jiri Novak (as #7, #10, #10, and #9).

In 2004 Mikhail manages to become a stable ATP player, winning constantly matches against top-10 opponents (#6 Schuettler, #4 Coria, #9 Nalbandian, and #8 Henman). HIs first top-5 win comes this year too, in the first round of Dubai, against #4 Guillermo Coria. He manages to win his second ATP title too, in St. Petersburg, defeating Karol Beck in the final. He ended the year with a 42-27 (61%) record.

2005 and 2006

Most notable results of 2005 were the 5-set loss in Australian Open against Rafael Nadal and QF in Cincinnati lost against Roddick. He ends the year with a 23-23 (50%) record. In 2006 Mikhail ends 2006 with a 25-21 (54%) record, but this year brings him his first Slam semi-final in US-Open, where he managed two top-5 wins too, against #5 Robredo, and #2 Rafa Nadal. He managed to win 1 doubles title (along with Max Mirnyi) and reach 2 more doubles finals.

2007 and 2008

The year ’07 starts very good with another ATP trophy (1st 500 ATP title) in Rotterdam (indoors), winning against #8 Ljubicic, and a runner-up in Dubai (lost to #1 Federer), winning against #2 Nadal in the QF too. 2007 is set to become Youzhny’s most successful year (total wins) with a 50-24 (68%) record.

2008 will leave a mark on Russian’s career as it’s the year where he settles the biggest win of his career (6-0 6-1 over #2 Nadal in the Chennai Final), and win his 4th ATP title. Another top-5 win, over #4 Davydenko, will boost him into the QF of Australian Open. He ends the year with a 28-22 (56%) record. This year he managed to get his highest ranking No. 8 (28 January 2008)! He won 2 doubles titles in 2007 (along with Zimonjić and Kohlschreiber) and 2 doubles titles in 2008 (both along with Zverev).

2009 and 2010

These two years will be the best years of Youzhny’s career, as he wins 3 ATP Titles (Kremlin Cup, Munich, and Malaysian Open) and reaching another 6 finals.

2009 will have a record of 48-30 (62%), while 2010 43-19 (69%), 2010 being the best Youzhny year in the win % department.

In 2010 he managed to get to his 2nd and final Slam Semi-Final, where he lost to #1 Rafael Nadal. He won Queen’s doubles title along with Moodie in 2009, and Halle title along with Stakhovsky in 2010.

2011

The first time in 5 years where Mikhail doesn’t manage to get at least to an ATP final, comes with nothing notable, but a set won against #3 Federer in Wimbledon and a record of 29-25 (54%). He still, somehow, won a doubles title in Dubai, along with Stakhovsky.

2012

Fortune, in facing no Top-40 opponents, and some good form will bring the 8th singles title in Zagreb, defeating #97 Lukas Kacko in the final. He managed to win the doubles title of Zagreb too, along with Baghdatis. The year is set to continue in a good way, ending 2012 with a 33-21 (61%) record.

 

2013

The last really good year of Youzhny’s career will bring him titles no. 9 and 10 (last singles titles), and another runner-up. He won against Haase in Swiss Open, and against Ferrer in Valencia (second ATP 500 title). The year ends on a rise with a 39-24 (62%) record.

2014-2017

These can be called the drop of Youzhny’s level and career, having not won a single title, neither reaching a final.

2014 ends with 18-23 (44%) record, and 2015 with 21-28 (43%) record. 2015 is the year Youzhny drops out of the top-100 for the first time in many years.
The year 2016 is the year Youzhny decides it’s time to step on the Challenger tour once again, where he wins 3 consecutive Challenger events to start 2016 (Bangkok Challenger x2, and Manila Challenger), getting again in the top-100 and getting some ATP main draw entries once again. He ends 2016 with a 34-20 (63%) record, but only 17-18 (49%) on ATP level.

2017 comes with a 31-28 (53%) all-level record, as he won another 2 Challenger events (in Ningbo and Ho Chi Minh, in October 2017), but only a 10-20 (33%) record on ATP level. It seems Youzhny has found a way to keep grinding the top-100, by playing and winning Challenger events. It is clear that his quality is too good for the Challenger level, but a bit bad for ATP level, which is really sad.

2018

2018 is called the last season of the career of Mikhail Youzhny and finishes in the same bad ATP record we got used to in the past years, 7-18 (28%). He needs to play a couple of qualification matches in each tournament to get his entry but doesn’t manage to win consistently on the ATP Level.

His last tournament was played in St. Petersburg, his most successful tournament on ATP level, reaching 3 finals, and winning 1 title. Unfortunately, he lost to Bautista-Agut (6)6-7 6-3 3-6 in the R16, despite having 2 set points in the 1st set and missing 2 BPs in the 3rd at 3-3 40-15*. Kind of ironically to lose your last match in this way, being up in all 3 sets and still losing.

Olympics

Youzhny participated in three Olympics: Athens 2004, Beijing 2008 and London 2012.

In Athens, he reached the quarterfinals and ended up losing to silver medalist Mardy Fish. He also played doubles in Athens, partnering up with Marat Safin, but ended up losing to Bob and Mike Bryan in the first round.

In Beijing, Youzhny reached the third round but lost to Novak Djokovic. In the doubles competition, he and Dmitry Tursunov reached the second round, losing to eventual champions Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka in two sets.

In London, he lost in the first round to Julien Benneteau. At the doubles he was more successful; he and his partner Nikolay Davydenko reached the second round, losing in two tiebreaks to Bob and Mike Bryan. In the mixed doubles, however, he and teammate Elena Vesnina lost in the first round in straight sets to the Argentine team of Gisela Dulko and Juan Martin Del Potro.

Davis Cup

He played 11 years for Russia in Davis Cup, gathering wins in singles over C. Rochus, Mathieu, Stepanek, Ratiwana, Llodra, Blake, Gasquet, Petzschner, Zimonjic, Hanescu, Bopanna, Devvarman, Leo Mayer, Mello, and Bellucci. Combined with that singles record he managed to win against Marach/Peya, Calleri/Nalbandian, Sluiter/Van Lottum, and Garcia/Gonzalez. He won the Davis Cup in 2002 and 2006 (in 2002 he won the deciding match against Mathieu, coming from 0-2 down to win 3-6 2-6 6-3 7-5 6-4, and in 2012 he won the doubles match along with Tursunov against the Argentines).

“If you really want to do something, and you give 100 percent of your time to this goal, you’ll have a chance to receive back from your investment,” Youzhny said.

As a summary of records in singles:

All-time, All level: 627-472 (57%)

Slams: 101-68 (60%)
Masters: 88-117 (43%)
All ATP: 499-416 (55%)
Qualifying ATP: 11-3 (79%)
Challengers: 66-30 (69%)
ITF Futures: 32-14 (70%)
Davis Cup: 15-11 (58%)

Most Match Wins In History By A Russian

Player | Record

1. Yevgeny Kafelnikov 609-306
2. Mikhail Youzhny 499-416
3. Nikolay Davydenko 482-329
4. Marat Safin 422-267
5. Andrei Chesnokov 344-259

Most ATP Match Wins In History

Rank | Player | Match | Wins

1. Jimmy Connors 1256
2. Roger Federer 1168
3. Ivan Lendl 1068
——————————
46. Mikhail Youzhny 499

Awards and personal life

Youzhny was awarded by the Russian government with the title “Honoured Master of Sports” in 2003 for his participation in Russia’s Davis Cup victory the previous year.

Youzhny began studying for a degree in philosophy at the University of Moscow in 2005, specializing in the philosophy and attitudes of tennis. He obtained his Ph.D. in December 2010. His thesis was entitled “Professional Tennis Players on the Court” and “was about other players and how they compared up against one another”.

When asked about his thesis, he said “I wrote it slowly when I had the time … You find out about other players and try to compare them with you. You look at what you have to do against them or what changes they may make before their matches or during your match with them.”

Youzhny married Yulia on 22 November 2008 in Moscow; the couple has two sons, Maxim born 4 December 2009 and Igor born 4 July 2012.

Opinions about Mikhail Youzhny

Novak Djokovic:

“Mikhail […] has one of the nicest and most efficient one-handed backhands on the tour. It seems a little bit unorthodox the way he holds his racquet, then [he] releases with two hands and in the end with one hand. But he’s a very talented player.”

Milos Raonic:

“Incredible person, first of all. Him, his coach Boris as well, have been some of the kindest people to me since I broke out on tour[…] He’s always around, he always finds opportunities, creates opportunities for himself, plays well and he’s been a real pleasure to have on tour.”

Tomas Berdych:

“I remember him since I started on the tour, and that’s already quite a few years… He’s a guy who has been around for a while. He’s achieved a lot and he was always a very, very tough opponent for me.”

Karen Khachanov:

“When he was at his best form he was playing really well, beating top guys and was a Top 10 player at a time. He is a good example for Russian players. He won the Davis Cup two times. When he was younger, he was faster and hit flatter and more powerful, but he was always tough to beat. He and his coach, Boris, were always helping and following me, giving me good advice. He has been a great influence.”

Nicolas Kiefer:

”I saw him and my first question was always, ‘You’re still around? You’re still playing?’ He said, ‘Yeah, well I love this sport and it’s great.’…As you can see, he’s very competitive, but he also enjoys it.

Tarpishchev:

“He was always a true team player, giving his all each and every time for the team,” he said. “We will really miss him.”

 

Memorable Moments

  • Bloody match

This match was played at Sony Ericsson Open in Miami when Mikhail Youzhny, one of the players, created a ruckus on the court with his insane antic. During the third set of his match against the Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, the Russian player started to hit his racquet against his head after a making a backhand unforced error in a crucial point, as he was having the break point to tie the set on 5-5. At the end, Youzhny prevailed in the third set tie-break by seven points to five, but that blood on his face will be one of the most historical images forever.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpm0gxvaW6M

 

  • “Sorri”

The 27-seeded Russian scraped “SORRI” into the clay with his right foot in the middle of his 6-0, 6-2, 6-2 loss to No. 6 David Ferrer on Saturday.

“There was a lot of people. That’s why I write ‘sorry.’ Because I can’t show them a nice game,” Youzhny said. “The way we played in the beginning, it was not really interesting for people.”

“People in the stands may not have noticed, but I think I had to do this,” Youzhny said.

 

  • Davis Cup 2002 Trophy and  3-6, 2-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 win over Mathieu

Tarpishev dropped the former World No.1 Yebgeny Kafelnikov, visibly unfit in the previous days, and lifted the spirit of 20-year-old Mikhail Louzhny, brought here as a practice hitter. A clash meant to define their respective careers in the coming years.

Never before had anyone recovered from two sets down to win a decisive fifth rubber in a Davis Cup final. ”The first two sets were not so good, but afterward I played like I can play” said Youzhny

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkQYhP-tpJ4

  • Youzhny defeats Nadal 6-0 6-1 in the Chennai Final
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    Carballes v Krueger Match preview + free tip #USOpen

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    Carballes v Krueger Match preview + free tip

     

    If I had to choose one match from the 1st day of US Open it would be Carballes v Krueger, a match where I cannot understand the price. This match was tipped for our premium subscribers @ 2.33 from Pinnacle, with minimum odds of 1.90 (Via broker SportMarket), and now he is priced 2.13 at the same bookie- which gave our paying subscribers a nice money’s worth on this drop.

    Why I can’t understand this pricing you might ask. First of all, the quality of the players is in Carballes’ favor. While Carballes is ranked #97 and has a highest ranking of #72, Krueger is ranked #267 and a highest ranking ever of #169. Both players have played over 40 matches in 2018 (Carballes 50 played, while Krueger 47) and both of them have won 23 of them. The fact that Carballes has won matches against Lorenzi, Jarry, Ramos, Marterer, Norrie, Fratangelo, Djere, Ruud, Garcia-Lopez or Pella shows us that he is a good player with decent results in 2018 (He has won Quito ATP too, on clay, but at altitude with very fast conditions). Best matches played by Krueger this year were those against Opelka, Basic, Bublik, Paire, Ramanathan, and the 3 played in the US Open qualifications (against Soeda, Kwiatkowski, and Hemery).

    Let me talk about what would go wrong and why Krueger is shown with chances in this match before I will analyze why I think he has little chances of winning this.
    Krueger plays mainly on hard courts, and mainly in North American venues. He has played 25 matches on hard courts in 2018 (won 14 of them) and 23 of those have been played in America or Canada (there was one challenger in Noumea and the Q1 in Australian Open). Carballes plays mainly on clay courts, with 42 played on clay from those 50 total matches in 2018. Carballes also played just about 10% of his professional matches on hard courts and the rest on clay. The fact that Krueger won the qualification matches here in New York has also a big impact on the price.
    Now, things that won’t work for Krueger and should work in favor of Carballes.

    Mitchel Krueger played only 8 matches on ATP level and won only 2 of them (both against a tanking or injured Benoit Paire). He lost to Ito, Kudla, Tursunov, Delpo, Krajinovic, and Herbert. This is the first best-of-5 sets match played by Krueger. Krueger is 49W-73L in his career in 3 setters (deciders) on all levels, which can only suggest that Krueger isn’t ready for the 3-out-of-5 matches. Krueger tried to get into the US Open main draw 5 prior times and managed 0 of them. This year is his first successful attempt to get to a Slam main-draw. Tursunov was ranked 800+ and hadn’t won a main level match in over 1 year when he beat Krueger last season (Tursunov had no stamina left, but still defeated Krueger).

    Carballes has won 26 ATP matches and lost 33, while he lost all 3 matches played in best-of-5 (5 sets to Pavlasek in 2016, 4 sets to Paire this year and 3 sets in Wimbledon against Harrison). Carballes has a 97W-98L record in deciding sets on all levels.

    Carballes played Winston Salem as preparation for US Open and he won against Pella (priced 4.89) and Ramos (priced 2.58), and also both in straight sets… then lost to Edmund 7-5 7-5 (priced 5.37).
    The fact that Krueger is so unexperimented at ATP level, the fact that Carballes has the better stamina are huge pluses for the Spaniard. Fact that the expected weather shows a 32C in the shadow and very humid, will also favor Carballes (as he is used to hot weather and humidity, being from Spain).

    The match-up between these two is in favor of the Spaniard, as Krueger has a mediocre (at most) backhand, while Carballes is very solid on this side. Carballes will push most of the times with the BH cross, long, while Krueger will hit a short and bouncy ball, where RCB can attack down the line. Fact is that Carballes has the better groundstrokes, while Krueger has the better serve. Carballes is also a good returner and US Open being a medium court speed (Arthur Ashe Stadium is quicker tho, but these won’t play on the CC), will make Carballes start more rallies and win more points by grinding out.

    I really expect Carballes to win this clash in 4 or 5 sets and will say this because of Krueger. Krueger can peak for a set with his serve and frustrate RCB, but he cannot compete for a long time at that level. Carballes needs to start the match with his mentality and game-plan to grind out his opponent. If he does that he will win for sure.

    Carballes to win @ 2.13 with 10 units

    (from Pinnacle via broker SportMarket)

     

     

     

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    New Haven Outright preview. Free Betting Tip.

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    Connecticut Open PREVIEW

    I am so excited about this tournament in New Haven and there is only one reason only: betting opportunity. I am always very eager to bet in the pre-Slam and post-Masters tournaments as there is a lot of info about fatigue and injury concerns, but also about the past results during such periods in the schedule.

    Connecticut Open will be held in New Haven (Connecticut, United States) between 19th August and 25th, and has a huge history behind, featuring its 50th edition in 2018 and was founded 70 years ago, in 1948. The venue for this tournament is Connecticut Tennis Center at Yale (45 Yale Avenue, New Haven, CT 06515). The total financial commitment is $799,000. The surface they play on in New Haven is “SportMaster Sport Surfaces/Outdoors”, which is similar to Irving Challenger and Washington Open.

    Following graph will show you the Prize money and ranking points that each round will settle.

    PAST RESULTS

    Looking at the past results we see good players winning this tournament in the past years: Wozniacki 2008-2011 (4 titles), Kvitova 2012, 2014-2015 (3 titles), Halep 2013, Radwanska 2016 and Gavrilova 2017. Fact is that the tournament had high seeds, but in the past 10 years, we saw only 3x 1st seeds winning this tournament (Wozniacki in 2010 and 2011 and Radwanska in 2016). One can guess, despite a possible 470 points can be won for this title, that top-players won’t do their best considering that the tournament is held 2 weeks before the US Open. Last year we saw an unseeded player winning here, Daria Gavrilova, winning against Krystina Pliskova, Babos, Flipkens, Radwanska, and Cibulkova in the final. Only two of those matches were won by Gavrilova as an underdog (SF and F).

    WEATHER

    The weather will be ok for tennis, having 20% chances of precipitation on Monday and 90% on Wednesday. The other days will be safe from rain and thunderstorms. Wind speeds will be between 8 km/h and 16 km/h during the week.

    TOP CONTENDERS

    Simona Halep is the top #1 seed, but one can be confident that she won’t do any damage this week as she comes after two hard weeks of tennis, winning Montreal Masters and losing in the Cincinnati Masters final to Bertens (Halep missed championship point in the 2nd set tie-break).

    The second seed, Caroline Garcia, has a decent year so far with 27 wins and 16 losses but has no finals played in 2018. Her recent results in New Haven are mediocre, losing to Flipkens in R16, Wozniacki in QF and Strycova in R16 in the past 3 years.

    Pliskova had a decent year so far too, but nothing special for her, winning only one tournament, on clay in Stuttgart (indoor). Her hard court results in 2018 are mediocre for a top-10 player, and maybe that’s why she got to #8 in the rankings. She lost matches to Sabalenka, Bertens (got crushed 6-2 6-2), Azarenka, Osaka, Kerber, Halep, Bellis, and Svitolina. She managed to win 0 matches as an underdog on hard courts this year. Pliskova’s best result in New Haven is a QF in 2015 lost to Tsurenko (1.48 favorite back then).
    Kvitova looks like being the best-rated player in the draw, as she won this tournament 3 times in the past 6 years. Kvitova has also 42 wins and just 10 losses in 2018, while on hard she is decent, with 14 wins and 6 losses. Those losses came to Giorgi and Petkovic (in January), Anisimova and Ostapenko (in March, after winning Doha title), and 2x Bertens (in August during Montreal and Cincinnati).

    Gavrilova, the reigning champion, has had a mediocre 2018 so far and managed to win 10 matches on hard and lose 9 of them. Nothing special from her side since Sydney in January. She might be motivated to defend her title, but her form is below-par. Her win over Begu in the first round was very good, winning 6-2 6-2, and that can boost her moral and make her a contender during this week.

    Bertens, the newest Cincinnati Masters winner, came to New Haven from Cincinnati (4 hours flight), but we surely can assume that she isn’t going to be at her best after her first Masters Tournament won on Sunday. I doubt she will make any statement here, keeping her fresh for the US Open. The price on her 1st match opponent, Kontaveit, is dropping like crazy too.

    The last contender in this draw, which I also consider the most valuable to back outright, is the German

    Julia Goerges read more

    Debrief of a losing day. Kyrgios v Coric #Cincinnati Free Tip + Betting preview

    After a day that could have gone in a huge profit, I find myself again in the losing position somehow- as yesterday came with a -21,89 units loss. Looking over the bets, as a debrief, I find myself wondering what went wrong and as a first part of the blog-post, I will analyze post-matches those bets.

    The day started excellently with the Popyrin bet of 9 units @ 2.75 that won in two straightforward sets. After that, we had two losses, one of 10 units in Mager (who tanked inexplicably in Italy) against a player who isn’t suited to clay and that has played few matches in 2018 too. The second loss of the day came when Nedelko lost the match despite having 2 match points on return in the 3rd set. In the end, he lost a 3rd set tie-break. He was tipped @ 4.50 and with a 5 units total stake.

    Next bet came on Hassan to win @ 2.42, staking 8 units. This one was rather strange from the beginning with Hassan losing the first set 6-0 despite having break-points in 2 return games. From the second set, he started playing better and won the match rather comfortable if we ignore that mistake of set 1. Lajovic was tipped @ 4.60 with 5 units against Raonic, and despite the drop in the odds for Dusan… he had no chance in the end as Raonic was winning almost every point on return and missing nearly 0 chances on return. This was the first fail-bet of the day (considering results).
    Ofner and Brown were advised to get over the 21.5 games margin (8 units stake @ 1.83) and they did, again, rather comfortably getting into a final set tie-break. The next bet was on Medvedev to win with 5 units, which lost in the end easily (2nd fail-bet of the day).

    Kudla to win @ 3.50 with 5 units was one of the most frustrating losses of the day as he won the first set 7-6 then had one BP at 4-4 *30-40 and 2 consecutive straight break-points at 5-5 *15-40, just to miss them and lose the set 7-5. In the 3rd Kudla missed again a BP in game 1 and then they went straight to a final set tie-break… Only mini-break at the start was Kyrgios hitting a +150 km/h return forehand. The serves were flying and aces after aces were hit. Kudla saved 2 match points while serving, easily and then Kyrgios hit a 2nd serve on 3rd match point… Kudla won the rally. Kudla got to the 8-7* up in the tie-break, but Kyrgios had other plans, hitting a 138 mph second serve ace on match point and another +135 mph ace at 8-8. Kudla lost the set eventually 11-9… another final set tiebreak loss, another MP missed loss.

    Khachanov v Ramos was almost exactly as I expected it to be, with 8 units bet (over 21.5 games @ 1.90) and 3 units (over 2.5 sets @ 3.00) bets won and a 4 unit bet lost (1st set tie-break).

    After this bet, the bad run began… Kohlschreiber faced BPs in one game in set 1 and managed to get broken by Copil, so the 1st set tie-break bet was lost. Fucsovics and Hurkacz 1st set tie-break bet @ 4.33 (6 units) lost at *4-5 with Fucs serving (to this point of the set neither went to deuce on serve)… 1.50 in-play lost. Tsitsipas, tipped @ 2.50 with 8 units, followed the horrible performance when he managed to miss consecutive 3 set points on the return just to get broken the next service game (first service game where he faced BP too). In the second he started with a 2-0 lead just to lose the set 6-3 in the end. Maybe the fatigue got to him, but I am sure the 3 set points missed got the best out of him. Another hard-to-digest loss was the Escobedo v Evans bet of over 22.5 games @ 1.97 (8 units), where Escobedo was down 4-6 4-1 (up in the second) just to lose 4-6 4-6 and missing a 5-4 lead point on serve… Another 1.10 in-play bet lost. Peliwo was a fail-bet in the end, despite having several chances to get in the match, while Bemelmans performed exactly as I expected him, winning @ 3.36 (6 units bet). Edmund breaking himself at 5-4* and serving (hit a double fault at 30-30 in this game) and the 1st set tie-break et @ 4.00 gets crushed again from 1.44 in-play.

    After taking all matches under verification, knowing the results… I can say that there were just a few bets that can be called “fail-bets” and those were small stakes too. The others were just heartbreaking loses that should have/could have won. This is not a blog post to moan about results, but just to analyze the stats and the day’s results… which I do every day.

    Now getting to the bet of the day, which I will analyze for you guys.

    My pick for the second round of Cincinnati will be the match between #18 ranked Australian and #21 ranked Croat, Borna Coric.

    It is a rather strange thing to have two almost top-20 players meet in the second round of a Masters event, but it is a good eye catcher for sure. Both of them are youngish and both have them had been called “the new star” in tennis for a few years now. Neither of them has risen up to their potential so far and along some good top-5 wins I cannot say many good things have happened. Kyrgios has won 4 ATP tournaments, but nothing special (only one Masters final and 2x QFs in Slams back in 2014 and 2015). Kyrgios won, strangely, 9 matches against top-5 players and lost just 13. He won matches against Dimitrov, Zverev, Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, and Wawrinka. Coric won 2 ATP titles (biggest this year in Halle against Federer) and lost another two finals… But nothing special tho. His Slam results are mediocre at most with 4x 3rd round losses as best results. His stats vs. top-5 players are OKish with 6 wins and 13 losses (wins over Federer, Zverev, Murray, and Nadal).
    Both players are extremely talented and both of them have been #1 juniors in the world. Coric won the boy’s US Open in 2013, while Kyrgios won the boy’s Australian Open in 2013.

    Nick Kyrgios is 1.93 m (6 ft 4 in) and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand, as Borna Coric is 1.85 m (6 ft 1 in) and plays and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand too.

    As styles of play stand… Kyrgios claims to not fear any opponent and says he always plays aggressively against everyone. Kyrgios’s main strength could be considered his serve; usually reaching higher or equal accuracy percentages of 75%, but also is known for hitting through the second serve to speed 200+ km/h. Nonetheless, he also has a tremendous and blasting forehand as well as a very consistent and dangerous backhand. Both of these ground strokes provoke damages to opponents, while he is not afraid to use the backhand down the line. Adding to his skills are an effective slice and an efficient net game, and is known to love a doubles’ match once in a while too. His best surfaces considering his playing style are grass and fast hard-courts. He doesn’t have a steady coach but has many training sessions with Lleyton Hewitt, while his brother Chris is following him around the circuit all year long keeping an eye on his body.

    Coric, on the other hand, is a defensive baseliner. He is solid from both the forehand and backhand wing and moves well laterally on the court. His style of play lends itself to having long rallies and wearing down his opponent from the baseline, but also getting to the net when his strokes were attacking and dangerous enough. Due to the fact that he’s born left-handed (fact is not known by most) but plays on his right hand, the strengths in his game are in his movement and his two-handed backhand, which can be called a top-10 backhand in the circuit. In addition to these qualities, he also possesses a strong and precise serve, which enables him to win a lot of easy points and rush to the net to close the points with the over-head or easy volley. He is currently coached by Kristijan Schneider and Riccardo Piatti (a huge coach, which improved the game of well-known tennis-players like Djokovic, Raonic, Ljubicic, and Gasquet).

    The two have met twice and both times in 2016 (once on clay in Estoril and once on hard courts in Cincinnati). Looking into the Cincinnati match we can see the match was rather serve-oriented. The first set got to a tie-break with no break of serves and having only 4 break-points the entire set (3 saved by Coric and 1 saved by Kyrgios). The second set was won by Kyrgios 6-4, converting the only BP of the set. The 3rd set wen rather strangely, in fact, having Coric save a break-point at 2-2 and Kyrgios begin broken 3-4 down which gave Coric a chance to serve for the match. Coric was broken to love and they went to a tie-break again (Coric saved another BP at 5-5). The tie-break was a roller-coaster as both of them had one match point each, Kyrgios missing his first and Coric converting on return. Tie-break ended up 8-6 in favor of Coric. In this clash, Coric served 16 aces, while Kyrgios 24. Coric won 82% of 1st serves and 50% of 2nd serves, while NK won 79% of 1st serves and 41% of 2nd serves- which make Coric the fair winner of the fight. Kyrgios was priced 1.14 in that clash and Coric 5.50, which might show the different path of both this year. Coric being priced now 1.50 and Kyrgios 2.50.

    I would guess that the match will go the same way this time again with very short rallies and a lot of aces. Kyrgios served 39 aces and 10 double faults in the match won against Kudla (won 6-7 7-5 7-6(9)). He also won 88% of 1st serves and 54% of 2nd serves. Coric, on the other hand, had an easier match against Medvedev. He hit 4 aces and 0 double faults and won 85% of 1st serves and 80% of 2nd serves. The match should be won in the end by the fitter player, which is Coric, but I am sure Kyrgios with his aggressive and over-confident style will hold serve rather comfortable for the almost entire match. His 2nd serve is a veritable weapon and we will see Kyrgios risking more on it because of Coric’s qualities as a returner.

    The tip for this match was sent earlier to our premium subscribers as “1st set tie-break” which was available at 4.50 (8 units) with PaddyPower and Betfair Sportsbook, with a minimum price of 3.00.

    As a free tip, we advise him now at 4.20 at same bookies (Comparison Link here) or second bets 3.40 from bet365 (Comparison Link here) with 8 units (premium users shouldn’t follow again).

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    Ardeal