We are now a couple of months into our journey at TipstersClub.com and like yourselves, we are learning week by week. That motto should follow you all your life as we never stop learning, changing, developing as when we do our edge has gone.
My motivation for being involved is pretty simple, all my life I have been around the professional sport, high-level betting poker or edge finding but I am getting older and have been through so many betting accounts in family and friends names that it gets harder and harder to get on. That said, it never really stops me and I love nothing more than destroying bookmakers, after all, they get away with not taking bets from law-abiding citizens in what is meant to be a democracy.
Bookmakers are lazy, why you may ask? Truth is, whatever they say, they are only interested in problem gamblers and getting social gamblers onto house games where they control the edge. The Gambling Commission is a disgrace typically a bunch of civil servants who do nothing and only pay lip service. Rant over! This, however, works for us, punters, who know were the edge is, as they are always trying to attract new customers with incorrect prices.
As you know I, Craig29-147s, cover snooker and golf but with snooker seasons five weeks away I am going to talk a little about our golf models.
There are several excellent tipsters around but in truth, they are limited in understanding how a professional sportsman mind works. That is the edge I will give you over time, the insecurities, the expectations, the mental let down week on week, the list goes on and on…
This is a big reason for us offering both Outrightand Places models, some professionals are mentally comfortable with winning, but importantly many are not and never will be, that however does not mean they are not profitable, in actual fact the opposite can apply as bookmakers fraction off win market into place market price. This means that journeyman professionals with consistent statistics are often overpriced in top 5, top 10 and top 20.
The higher volume of turnover is achieved on the more fancied players whom we will rarely tip in place model at the high end of the market leaving market value for us.
Some professionals are habitual fast starters or poor finishers, why? The answer is simple: life is breed from learned behavior, this works brilliantly for us especially with the fast starters repeatedly having good first rounds and winning a market that has no personal pressure. Dead heat rules can hurt in this market thus we will never tip under 50/1 and rarely under 100/1 as this is not +EV.
This is not to say that some professionals don’t manage to swim against the tide, a sports psychologist can be a real long-term investment and help in changing learned behavior so I never try to pigeonhole player with the same identity, always being sensitive to changing dynamics.
Lots of things change like nappy factor which has been a profitable line over the years, players lose people close to them and this releases their shackles as “fear of losing”subsides. This even has a positive effect on proven winners.
Always, plenty to think about and I hope you’ve enjoyed first entry, future blogs will go into these issues in more detail with plenty more on top…