Ardeal subscription. Debrief and future plans.

Hey all,

As you have definitely seen the results in the past weeks, as for today 28th June, have been dreadful to say least and I wanted to come over with some kind of explanation and future steps for the service. Many of you know me from the BetDistrict, back in the days, or maybe from BettingKingdom, both sites where I have published free tips with a great success. I assume most of you know and followed me back at BookieInsiders where I have been tipping successful for over 3 years (4000 tips over 3 years with a 9.8% ROI). I do appreciate the confidence and the trust put in me, but as I have shown I do also appreciate the loyalty to me, moving to TipstersClub, offering to the long-term subscribers a substantial discount.  Discounts won’t make you any happier these weeks, not even a free subscription can make you happy right now, which I won’t try to imply in any way. The results were dreadful, and I am the worst critic of me and of my service as I try to make TipstersClub as good as a service as I expect to be any service I want to subscribe to (premium and paid service).

Some short debrief over the past weeks will follow. There were a lot of tips, and that is a fact. There were a lot of valuable tips that got crushed (the prices) over the hours and that shows me that I have done some good things. There were also some bad bets, which I won’t try to hide. The results since we started TipstersClub in February are as follow (https://tipstersclub.com/statistics/):

Total Profit: +54.944 units

Total stake: 5770.50 units

ROI: +0.952%

Bets won: 347/968 (35.847%)

Average stake: 5.961 units

Average Odds: 4.876

These stats are all combined with the stats via Free Tips (first two months of TipstersClub have offered exclusive free tips). Since I started the paid tips, everything has gone downwards and the profit made in those months is almost inexistent right now. A rough calculation will make it that I have been tipping at TipstersClub for 135 days having tipped 968 tips (settled), which makes an average of 7,17 tips each day with an average of 0.056 units profit for each tip. These numbers are bad, and I can approve of that. Considering these stats I have some announcements to make so you know the direction the service is going. The number of bets has been growing because I have tried (have priory tried that personally with success tho) to implement a tactic where quantity will meet with quality and despite having a lower ROI with many tips, the overall profit would be greater and the chance of hitting bad runs is smaller. This strategy is great for the very long term, like 18 months at least (since I am doing it myself), based on bookies and markets with high liquidity, like Pinnacle or Matchbook (available with sports traders). The fact that the last weeks have demolished a good part of the bankroll due to this strategy makes me think that it is not the best one to have as a tennis tipster.

Some cons for the past weeks:

–          Results were really bad

–          Way too many tips for most of the subscribers

–          Too time-consuming to place all tips

–          Outright bets were rarely reached (price wise) as advised odds

–          Many matches mean many bad beats

–          The sample of  <2.00 odds were unprofitable

Some pros for the past weeks:

–          Value bets were present

–          Nice underdog wins

–          Good profit from the underdog bets

–          Many, many trading or hedging opportunities

Having bad beats and having players that lose from Match-Point up, players that lose from winning more points than the opponent, Players tipped 4+, that reach 1.20 in-play that lose, outright bets that lose inexplicably as heavy, clear favorites… all these are a part of the game and I have to accept them. These are what make variance such a bitch, but these influence the end stats and overall profit. I won’t say that only those have brought me here, in this hole of the past weeks, but I am saying that that was a part of it. I have done maybe some mistakes that I try to correct in the future and that’s why the service will follow next step over the next weeks:

–          There will be a maximum of 100 betting tips each month, no matter how many value bets I see in a day, I will choose from them and give you just the best (personal choice).

–          Time to place the tips will be lower considering an average of 3-4 tips each day.

–          Bookie that will be used for tipping: Pinnacle, Matchbook, SBO, Betdaq, Betfair Exchange 80% of the times (these are all very easy to follow if you open a sports trader account. These have the best odds, reachable and best limits. If you have no contact for that, just write me on twitter or a mail and hopefully we can find the best solution), bet365, unibet/888, Betfair SP/Paddy, Marathon, WillHill 20% of the times (these have been known to limit winners, but on the up-side it is rather easy to create and create new accounts on family and friends names)

–          Outright bets will be just a small part of the tipping service

–          Expected ROI will be 15% over the next 3 months (I will come to you with an update after this period)

–          Expected win rate should go to 40%

–          I will place at least 80% of the bets as underdog bets, that should be favorites or close to favorites and the other 20% on <2.00 bets that should be around 1.50 at best, so bets with huge value!

–          There will be some free tips (for marketing purposes), but please follow them too!

–          As you have seen, time of tipping is usually in the morning of the matches as every bookie has priced the matches, or sometimes in the night before (this will stay the same)

–          Notification emails will come once for every lot of tips (there has been a poll on twitter regarding this issue and people accept email notifications and 1 mail for every lot as best option)

–           There will be no “BOOMing” or anything like that on  TipstersClub twitter account, no more score updates or anything individual match related (That I will do on the personal Twitter account, without the Booming tho)

 

Considering all these, please accept my apologies for the late results and please let me know what you think about this new implementation I want to and will do. Your opinion and suggestion matter and that’s why I sent this mail to each and every #Ardeal subscriber. You are a valuable member of the team and your money is as valuable as the service itself. I will make up to the bad days!

Kind regards,
ARDEAL 
PRO TIPSTER

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