Indoor tennis started and I have to say I love it! This is the best time of the season, along with the short grass court part. I love it because there is enough data to compile odds, enough data to see how each player has played in the past on this surface, but also there are a lot of courts covered by streamings and that is the best way to analyze a match.
Tsitsipas is the #12 in the world right now, reaching this ranking after this superb run to the Semis of Australian Open. The fact that he didn’t do anything after that is no surprise, as he stated several times that his physical condition isn’t that what he hoped for and he is really tired after the long AO campaign.
Stef played Sofia where he won 7-6 6-4 against Struff and then lost to Monfils 6-3 7-6. He then played Rotterdam where he lost to Dzumhur 6-4 1-6 7-5, as a 1.19 favorite to win the match. I saw all matches after the Australian swing and I have to say he is was not fully fit and not even close to fully committed to the matches played.
Most of the tennis-followers say that Tsitsi is the new Federer and is a breath of fresh air on the ATP tour. I might have to disagree with this as I don’t really rate him that much. It is hard to compare a kid to Federer, and comparing a kid that can barely break serve to that level of achievement is pure insanity.
Tsitsipas played 14 matches in 2019 and won 8 of them, 5 of them came in Australia. So, besides of the Australian run, he has won 3 other matches. He managed to lose to Norrie (Hopman Cup), Federer (Hopman Cup), Seppi (Sydney), Monfils (Sofia), and Dzumhur (Rotterdam). 4 of those mentioned losses came as him being a favorite. During those 14 matches played in this year, he managed to play 42 sets of tennis, and of those 42 sets of tennis, he played a stunning amount of tie-breaks (13 tie-breaks). That is 30,95% chance of playing a tie-break in a set. That is nearly an Ivo/Isner level of tie-breaks played.
In 2019, in his official ATP matches, he managed to hold serve 87% of times (which is really good), but break only 14% of all return games. That is really low for a player ranked #12. These numbers show us a clear story of Tsitsipas. He is over-achieving by winning a lot of close matches, and also tie-breaks in the end.
Stefanos will face in this match, top-ranked Polish player, Hubert Hurkacz. One thing you need to know about Hubert is that he is a great server and possesses a great power when serving. He is also playing a lot of tie-breaks in his matches, but he is still between ATP challenger level and rising to the ATP full-time. He played 11 matches in 2019 and win 7 of them, while during those 11 matches he played 27 sets of tennis. During those 27 sets, he played 11 tie-breaks (4 of them came against Karlovic tho).
Hubert loves playing indoors as he can use his services at full value. Indoors there isn’t any wind and the temperature is constant. Hubert started the Marseille campaign with a surprising win over Krajinovic, being a 2.84 underdog in that clash. This is the first time he plays Marseille, which is not surprising as he played in the past mostly in Challenger events. Hubert’s stats for his 2019 ATP matches are a bit misleading and cannot be considered fully as he played 4 sets against Karlovic. He has an 88% hold percentage (out of 49 service games played) and 4% break percentage (out of his 50 return games played).
Anyway, we can see a clear pattern here, and having two players that rely on their serves, while return this poorly we can clearly expect them to have a close encounter with a tie-break at least. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if HH will win a set, or the match in the end, considering the form Stef is currently. Even a close loss will make this bet a winner here.
The two players have played a match in the NextGen Finals last year, a match won by Tsitsipas 4-1 4-3 4-1, but that really doesn’t matter as they played with special rules there (no-deuce most important).
Hurkacz +3.5 Games @ 2.05 (10 units) with Pinnacle (via SportMarket)