American outdoor hard court swing starts with Delray Beach Open and we do have a match to be excited about, on a betting way at least. But to that a bit later.
Delray Beach Open is a 250 ATP event that is held in Delray Beach, Florida since 1993. The current title holder is American Frances Tiafoe. In the past years, we did saw a lot of big servers prevail here and the only one that won this title twice in the past 10 years is Ernests Gulbis. The last 5 years this title has been won by Cilic, Karlovic, Querrey, Sock, and Tiafoe. We definitely can see a pattern here. The seeds list for 2019 tournament is rather disappointing with Del Potro (injury problems), Isner (out of form), Tiafoe, Johnson, Millman, Seppi, Fritz, and Mannarino. The 8th seed of Delray Beach is Mannarino, who is ranked #51 in the world and has a 0-6 record in 2019. Just imagine…
They use a Plexipave outdoor hard court that’s rather bouncy and from past experience plays quite slow and heavy at night. Wind is always a big factor, while there might be also some medium-high humidity in the air.
The match I am thinking about most in a betting fashion is the ultimate battle between tennis styles, the match between two fellow Aussies, Nick Kyrgios and John Millman.
The years of these two couldn’t have been more different too. Nick played 4 matches in 2019 and lost 3 of them, while during those 4 matches he played 11 sets of tennis (4 of them were tie-breaks). He lost to Chardy in Brisbane, to Tomic in Kooyong Exhibition, and to Raonic in Australian Open round 1 clash. He hasn’t been impressive at all this year, while in addition to his poor form he had some serious injury issues. Last year he had a hip injury in August and ended the year in December with an elbow injury, while this year he was bitten by a spider and had some swallowed up ankle. Nothing working in his favor right now, not even the Goddess Fortune didn’t do her magic in the draw as he has to face one of the most serious players on tour.
Besides being a very serious player, Millman is also a very hard worker and one of the biggest fighters there is in ATP rankings. He isn’t that flashy and doesn’t try trick-shots as Nick does, but you can put money on him and you know he will give everything. John has a 5W-4L this year and has defeated Sandgren, Tiafoe, Fucsovics, Delbonis, and Dzumhur so far this year. Last year in February, John played Montpellier indoors and lost in the 2nd round, and also won a Challenger event in Kyoto. The sad thing about his career is that he didn’t even win an ATP event so far, but I think that might change this year, as he truly deserves it!
Motivation is a big part of my bet’s arguments, as Kyrgios usually just clowns around during these small tournaments and loses very often as a big favorite (lost to Chardy as 1.37 fave and Tomic as 1.58, while in second part of 2018 he lost to Nishikori in Wimbledon as 1.40, in Atlanta against Norrie as 1.23, in Tokyo against Gasquet as 1.56, in Shanghai as 1.25 against Klahn, and withdrew before playing Basic in Moskow). We can surely see a pattern here and combining this lack of motivation in small tournaments with his physical problems is a perfect mixture to make Millman favorite here.
Millman will do his best to win a couple of matches here and maybe do a nice run and give himself the possibility to win his maiden ATP title.
These two players have met before, back in 2017 during the US Open first round, and then Millman did win the clash 3-1 (6-3 1-6 6-4 6-1), which also shows us, that him losing a set clearly won’t make him stop fighting. This match is the ultimate betting opportunity in my opinion and that’s why I have shared this #FreeTip with you guys!
I would definitely back Millman at a bookie that doesn’t void a retirement after one set played, as Kyrgios might retire at any point, as he has done in the past.
Millman to win @ 2.03 (10 units) with Matchbook (via SportMarket)