After a day that could have gone in a huge profit, I find myself again in the losing position somehow- as yesterday came with a -21,89 units loss. Looking over the bets, as a debrief, I find myself wondering what went wrong and as a first part of the blog-post, I will analyze post-matches those bets.
The day started excellently with the Popyrin bet of 9 units @ 2.75 that won in two straightforward sets. After that, we had two losses, one of 10 units in Mager (who tanked inexplicably in Italy) against a player who isn’t suited to clay and that has played few matches in 2018 too. The second loss of the day came when Nedelko lost the match despite having 2 match points on return in the 3rd set. In the end, he lost a 3rd set tie-break. He was tipped @ 4.50 and with a 5 units total stake.
Next bet came on Hassan to win @ 2.42, staking 8 units. This one was rather strange from the beginning with Hassan losing the first set 6-0 despite having break-points in 2 return games. From the second set, he started playing better and won the match rather comfortable if we ignore that mistake of set 1. Lajovic was tipped @ 4.60 with 5 units against Raonic, and despite the drop in the odds for Dusan… he had no chance in the end as Raonic was winning almost every point on return and missing nearly 0 chances on return. This was the first fail-bet of the day (considering results).
Ofner and Brown were advised to get over the 21.5 games margin (8 units stake @ 1.83) and they did, again, rather comfortably getting into a final set tie-break. The next bet was on Medvedev to win with 5 units, which lost in the end easily (2nd fail-bet of the day).
Kudla to win @ 3.50 with 5 units was one of the most frustrating losses of the day as he won the first set 7-6 then had one BP at 4-4 *30-40 and 2 consecutive straight break-points at 5-5 *15-40, just to miss them and lose the set 7-5. In the 3rd Kudla missed again a BP in game 1 and then they went straight to a final set tie-break… Only mini-break at the start was Kyrgios hitting a +150 km/h return forehand. The serves were flying and aces after aces were hit. Kudla saved 2 match points while serving, easily and then Kyrgios hit a 2nd serve on 3rd match point… Kudla won the rally. Kudla got to the 8-7* up in the tie-break, but Kyrgios had other plans, hitting a 138 mph second serve ace on match point and another +135 mph ace at 8-8. Kudla lost the set eventually 11-9… another final set tiebreak loss, another MP missed loss.
Khachanov v Ramos was almost exactly as I expected it to be, with 8 units bet (over 21.5 games @ 1.90) and 3 units (over 2.5 sets @ 3.00) bets won and a 4 unit bet lost (1st set tie-break).
After this bet, the bad run began… Kohlschreiber faced BPs in one game in set 1 and managed to get broken by Copil, so the 1st set tie-break bet was lost. Fucsovics and Hurkacz 1st set tie-break bet @ 4.33 (6 units) lost at *4-5 with Fucs serving (to this point of the set neither went to deuce on serve)… 1.50 in-play lost. Tsitsipas, tipped @ 2.50 with 8 units, followed the horrible performance when he managed to miss consecutive 3 set points on the return just to get broken the next service game (first service game where he faced BP too). In the second he started with a 2-0 lead just to lose the set 6-3 in the end. Maybe the fatigue got to him, but I am sure the 3 set points missed got the best out of him. Another hard-to-digest loss was the Escobedo v Evans bet of over 22.5 games @ 1.97 (8 units), where Escobedo was down 4-6 4-1 (up in the second) just to lose 4-6 4-6 and missing a 5-4 lead point on serve… Another 1.10 in-play bet lost. Peliwo was a fail-bet in the end, despite having several chances to get in the match, while Bemelmans performed exactly as I expected him, winning @ 3.36 (6 units bet). Edmund breaking himself at 5-4* and serving (hit a double fault at 30-30 in this game) and the 1st set tie-break et @ 4.00 gets crushed again from 1.44 in-play.
After taking all matches under verification, knowing the results… I can say that there were just a few bets that can be called “fail-bets” and those were small stakes too. The others were just heartbreaking loses that should have/could have won. This is not a blog post to moan about results, but just to analyze the stats and the day’s results… which I do every day.
Now getting to the bet of the day, which I will analyze for you guys.
My pick for the second round of Cincinnati will be the match between #18 ranked Australian and #21 ranked Croat, Borna Coric.
It is a rather strange thing to have two almost top-20 players meet in the second round of a Masters event, but it is a good eye catcher for sure. Both of them are youngish and both have them had been called “the new star” in tennis for a few years now. Neither of them has risen up to their potential so far and along some good top-5 wins I cannot say many good things have happened. Kyrgios has won 4 ATP tournaments, but nothing special (only one Masters final and 2x QFs in Slams back in 2014 and 2015). Kyrgios won, strangely, 9 matches against top-5 players and lost just 13. He won matches against Dimitrov, Zverev, Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, and Wawrinka. Coric won 2 ATP titles (biggest this year in Halle against Federer) and lost another two finals… But nothing special tho. His Slam results are mediocre at most with 4x 3rd round losses as best results. His stats vs. top-5 players are OKish with 6 wins and 13 losses (wins over Federer, Zverev, Murray, and Nadal).
Both players are extremely talented and both of them have been #1 juniors in the world. Coric won the boy’s US Open in 2013, while Kyrgios won the boy’s Australian Open in 2013.
Nick Kyrgios is 1.93 m (6 ft 4 in) and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand, as Borna Coric is 1.85 m (6 ft 1 in) and plays and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand too.
As styles of play stand… Kyrgios claims to not fear any opponent and says he always plays aggressively against everyone. Kyrgios’s main strength could be considered his serve; usually reaching higher or equal accuracy percentages of 75%, but also is known for hitting through the second serve to speed 200+ km/h. Nonetheless, he also has a tremendous and blasting forehand as well as a very consistent and dangerous backhand. Both of these ground strokes provoke damages to opponents, while he is not afraid to use the backhand down the line. Adding to his skills are an effective slice and an efficient net game, and is known to love a doubles’ match once in a while too. His best surfaces considering his playing style are grass and fast hard-courts. He doesn’t have a steady coach but has many training sessions with Lleyton Hewitt, while his brother Chris is following him around the circuit all year long keeping an eye on his body.
Coric, on the other hand, is a defensive baseliner. He is solid from both the forehand and backhand wing and moves well laterally on the court. His style of play lends itself to having long rallies and wearing down his opponent from the baseline, but also getting to the net when his strokes were attacking and dangerous enough. Due to the fact that he’s born left-handed (fact is not known by most) but plays on his right hand, the strengths in his game are in his movement and his two-handed backhand, which can be called a top-10 backhand in the circuit. In addition to these qualities, he also possesses a strong and precise serve, which enables him to win a lot of easy points and rush to the net to close the points with the over-head or easy volley. He is currently coached by Kristijan Schneider and Riccardo Piatti (a huge coach, which improved the game of well-known tennis-players like Djokovic, Raonic, Ljubicic, and Gasquet).
The two have met twice and both times in 2016 (once on clay in Estoril and once on hard courts in Cincinnati). Looking into the Cincinnati match we can see the match was rather serve-oriented. The first set got to a tie-break with no break of serves and having only 4 break-points the entire set (3 saved by Coric and 1 saved by Kyrgios). The second set was won by Kyrgios 6-4, converting the only BP of the set. The 3rd set wen rather strangely, in fact, having Coric save a break-point at 2-2 and Kyrgios begin broken 3-4 down which gave Coric a chance to serve for the match. Coric was broken to love and they went to a tie-break again (Coric saved another BP at 5-5). The tie-break was a roller-coaster as both of them had one match point each, Kyrgios missing his first and Coric converting on return. Tie-break ended up 8-6 in favor of Coric. In this clash, Coric served 16 aces, while Kyrgios 24. Coric won 82% of 1st serves and 50% of 2nd serves, while NK won 79% of 1st serves and 41% of 2nd serves- which make Coric the fair winner of the fight. Kyrgios was priced 1.14 in that clash and Coric 5.50, which might show the different path of both this year. Coric being priced now 1.50 and Kyrgios 2.50.
I would guess that the match will go the same way this time again with very short rallies and a lot of aces. Kyrgios served 39 aces and 10 double faults in the match won against Kudla (won 6-7 7-5 7-6(9)). He also won 88% of 1st serves and 54% of 2nd serves. Coric, on the other hand, had an easier match against Medvedev. He hit 4 aces and 0 double faults and won 85% of 1st serves and 80% of 2nd serves. The match should be won in the end by the fitter player, which is Coric, but I am sure Kyrgios with his aggressive and over-confident style will hold serve rather comfortable for the almost entire match. His 2nd serve is a veritable weapon and we will see Kyrgios risking more on it because of Coric’s qualities as a returner.
The tip for this match was sent earlier to our premium subscribers as “1st set tie-break” which was available at 4.50 (8 units) with PaddyPower and Betfair Sportsbook, with a minimum price of 3.00.